In less than 30 days -next Sunday, July 28th-, Venezuela will define its future in a key presidential election that will undoubtedly impact the future of Latin Americaespecially because of the possibility that the result at the polls could lead to a new wave of migrants in the region.
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At the moment, there are more uncertainties than certainties, especially because For the first time in 25 years, Chavismo is behind in the polls and the opposition has the support of at least 80 percent of the population, according to opinion polls.
However, although people on the street know that July 28 is the date set by the National Electoral Council (CNE) for the presidential elections, not everyone is confident that the process will go ahead. In fact, many prefer to remain silent and wait.
María Corina Machado, the main opposition leader who won the opposition primaries but was disqualified and delegated her electoral banners to the candidate Edmundo González
Added to this is the fact that María Corina Machado, the main opposition leader who won the opposition primaries but was disqualified and delegated her electoral banners to the candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, seems to have an unprecedented welcome, even in a foreign body, and has demonstrated the serious risk that advancing in the process poses for Nicolás Maduro.
“We are going to liberate Venezuela,” Machado said in a video on social media, insisting that it is “a matter of time” before Maduro leaves power.
Maduro, who is seeking re-election, replied that “the right-wing tri-partisan party will not come to power in Venezuela,” alluding to a term popularly used in the state of Zulia.
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado greets supporters during a campaign rally in San Cristobal, Tachira state, Venezuela.
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Why is there so much uncertainty about the elections in Venezuela?
“The persecution and threats against members and activists of our Campaign Command are increasing 30 days before the electoral process, which is unacceptable,” warned the main opposition candidate Edmundo González on his X account.
González’s complaint is related to the actions of the Maduro government against those who support the opposition.
At each visit by Machado or González, hundreds of citizens accompany the activities. These are mobilizations that have not been seen since Hugo Chávez was in power.
Supporting the opposition has become synonymous with punishment. By the end of May, ten establishments were among those closed by the government, just for hosting Machado or serving food to his campaign team. In addition to the more than 30 people who are deprived of their liberty and who are part of the opposition teams to the government.
The list of people detained in Venezuela for supporting María Corina Machado:
1) Henry Alviarez, national organization coordinator of Vente Venezuela and national organization coordinator of Comando Con Venezuela.
2) Dignora Hernández, national political secretary and coordinator of political operations of the Comando Con Venezuela.
3) Emill Brandt, state coordinator of Vente Venezuela in Barinas and head of the Comando Con Venezuela campaign command in Barinas.
4) Juan Freites, state coordinator of Vente Venezuela in Vargas and campaign manager of the Comando Con Venezuela.
5) Luis Camacaro, state coordinator of Vente Venezuela in Yaracuy.
6) Guillermo López, head of the Command With Venezuela in the state of Trujillo.
7) Victor Emmanuel Castillo Vizcaya, head of the Command With Venezuela in the municipality of Santa Rosalía in the state of Portuguesa.
Edmundo González Urrutia has denounced an increase in persecution and threats against opposition members and activists.
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8) Carlos Julio Rojas, member of the National Team of the Great National Alliance.
9) Oscar Manuel Castaneda, supporter of Vente Venezuela in Santa Rosalía, Portuguesa state.
10) Ámbar Andreina Márquez, organization coordinator of Primero Justicia in the state of Portuguesa.
11) Jeancarlos Rivas, youth leader of Voluntad Popular in Vargas.
12) Juan Iriarte, parish organization coordinator of Vente Venezuela in Maiquetía in Vargas.
13) Luis López, president of the Broad Front in Vargas and member of the Communications Center of the Command with Venezuela in Vargas.
14) Gabriel González, member of the national Communications team of Vente Venezuela.
Guests at the Argentine Embassy in Caracas who are accused by Nicolás Maduro of ‘conspiracy’:
1) Magalli Meda, national head of the Command With Venezuela.
2) Claudia Macero, national communications coordinator of the Command with Venezuela.
3) Pedro Urruchurtu, coordinator of international affairs at Vente Venezuela and coordinator of international relations at Comando Con Venezuela.
4) Humberto Villalobos, national electoral coordinator of the Command With Venezuela.
5) Omar González, head of the Command with Venezuela in Anzoátegui.
6) Fernando Martínez Mottola, political advisor of the Democratic Unitary Platform.
Maria Corina Machado’s collaborators took refuge in the Argentine Embassy.
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Persons released on bail:
1) Victor Venegas, state political secretary of Vente Venezuela in Barinas.
2) Joe Villamizar, coordinator of the María Corina Machado Campaign Command in the Girardot Municipality of the state of Aragua.
The list of leaders, mayors, councilors disqualified, dismissed, persecuted and detained
1) Carlos Ocariz, former mayor of the Sucre Municipality of Miranda state, disqualified.
2) Tomás Guanipa, member of the National Assembly (2011-2020), disqualified.
3) Juan Carlos Caldera, member of the National Assembly (2011-2016), disqualified.
4) Elías Sayegh, mayor of the El Hatillo Municipality of Miranda state, disqualified.
5) José Antonio Fernández, mayo
r of the Los Salias Municipality of Miranda state, disqualified.
6) Yonhy Lizcano, mayor of the Ayacucho Municipality of Táchira state, arrested.
7) Lenin Ortiz, councilor of the Tucupita Municipality of the state of Delta Amacuro, dismissed.
Tomás Guanipa, upon his return to Venezuela, assures that he will not run as a candidate for regional elections
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8) Orelys Jaimez, councilor of the Tucupita Municipality of the state of Delta Amacuro, dismissed.
9) Yonathan Rangel, mayor of the Pan-American Municipality of Táchira state, with an arrest warrant.
10) Teresa Contreras, mayor of the José María Vargas Municipality of Táchira state, with an arrest warrant.
11) Omar Rojas, mayor of the Francisco de Miranda Municipality of Táchira state, with an arrest warrant.
12) Keiver Peña, mayor of the Sucre Municipality of Trujillo state, disqualified.
13) José Carrillo, mayor of the Urdaneta Municipality of Trujillo state, disqualified.
14) Heriberto Tapia, mayor of the Motatán Municipality of Trujillo state, disqualified.
15) Dilcia Rojas, mayor of the Campo Elías Municipality of Trujillo state, disqualified.
16) Yohantis Domínguez, mayor of the Carache Municipality of Trujillo state, disqualified.
17) José María Fermín, mayor of the Villalba Municipality of the state of Nueva Esparta, disqualified.
18) Iraima Vásquez, mayor of the Turbores Municipality of the state of Nueva Esparta, disqualified.
Will there be elections in Venezuela? What scenarios are being considered?
Venezuelans march demanding guarantees for the opposition.
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Rumors come and go about this. From the possibility of Edmundo González being disqualified to the elimination of the Unit’s card. There is also talk of a suspension because Chavismo seems headed for defeat. Another theory is that the elections will be held in December and not in July.
The number two of Chavismo, Diosdado Cabello, warned on June 26 that “whoever goes out to mess things up on the street, we will mess them up first. We are saying this ahead of time. We are not the same as in 2015, 2016, no. Those scenarios are not going to happen.”
Chavismo insists that there will be elections and that nothing will stop the process.
For the director of the Datanálisis firm, Luis Vicente León, “it is not true that the result of the July 28 election is already clear and defined” but neither is it “true that there is no room for surprises.”
Photograph provided by Prensa Miraflores showing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro during a government event on June 13, 2024.
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Leon reminds us that this is not just an election between two unbalanced candidates. The analyst believes that this is an electoral event in which the results will depend on at least five key variables:
- The number of effective votes that Edmundo González manages to move, “which are based fundamentally on the endorsement of María Corina Machado.”
- The effective votes that Nicolás Maduro manages to move, through the structure of his party and the national government, which has resources that are above his adversary.
- The votes that the alternative opposition candidates manage to capture, which together represent a significant portion of the overall opposition vote.
- The total number of abstentions, which starts with 4,000,000 people (the total number of people who cannot vote because they are outside the country and who will not be able to vote due to the restrictions implemented by the CNE in this regard).
- The national government’s institutional control over the election.
Edmundo González has also considered neutralising his candidacy. “Eliminating my candidacy is one of the options that is in the air.”
4,000,000 people will not be able to vote because they are outside the country.
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What do the polls say about Nicolás Maduro and Edmundo González?
There is a poll war – as in any election – the difference is that The best known ones give Edmundo González as the winner and the recently appeared ones give Nicolás Maduro as the winner.
The already known as Meganalisis, Consultores 21, Datincorp, Hercon and Delphos, agree that González would have between 11 and 37 points above Nicolás Maduro. The former with a voting intention of between 55 and 60 percent, while Maduro would be left with between 10 and 27 percent.
On the other hand, IdeaDatos, Insight, DataViva, CMIDE 50.1 and Paramétrico launched their websites at least a year ago. All of them give Maduro the win with a percentage of votes of at least 50 percent, while Gonzalez is given 8 or 10 percent.
Nicolas Maduro and Edmundo Gonzalez.
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The role of the international community in the elections in Venezuela
At the beginning of the year, Gustavo Petro and Lula Da Silva publicly expressed interest in the holding of the Venezuelan elections. The Colombian president instructed his ambassador in Caracas to participate in the creation of a document with a view to a plebiscite on July 28 to provide guarantees to the parties.
“Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was aware of the proposal, but as far as we know, Maduro did not accept it,” a source told EL TIEMPO.
Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was informed of the proposal, but, as far as we know, Maduro did not accept it.
One month into the process, it seems that both countries have washed their hands of the process due to Maduro’s refusal to accept the conditions.
The European Union, on the other hand, was excluded from international observation and the United Nations will be one of those present, as will the Carter Center.
The United States, through Brian A. Nichols, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, reiterated that his country hopes that Edmundo González’s candidacy will be maintained.
Ana Maria Rodriguez Brazon – Correspondent of El Tiempo – Caracas
STEPHANY ECHAVARRÍA – International Editor – EL TIEMPO
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