Managers see infrastructure year with high real interest rates, atypical flow and restrictions on exempt individuals

Infrastructure investments are experiencing an “emblematic year” with the triad of high real interest rates, atypical flows from multimarket funds and restrictions from the National Monetary Council (CMN) on exempt assets. This is the assessment of fund managers who participated in a panel at the Expert XP event, on the afternoon of Saturday, August 31, and see an opportunity to enter the segment in the current macroeconomic scenario.

“It is a very emblematic year for infrastructure, largely due to the return of the investor’s focus, which is changing the market and has made a big wave in this segment”, says Samer Serhan, partner and chief investment officer (CIO) of private credit at Jive Mauá.

For him, much of the appetite came from regulatory changes by the CMN, aimed at restrictions on exempt assets such as financial bills and real estate and agribusiness receivables certificates (LCI, LCA, CRI and CRA). “The incentives have changed and opened up opportunities for investors to look at debentures and exempt funds.”

For Samuel Santos, infrastructure manager at AZ Quest, in addition to the changes made by the CMN, the triad that infrastructure investments have been surfing is completed by the high real interest rate and the atypical flow coming from multimarket funds. However, he says that since infrastructure projects take a few years to be developed, the demand greater than the supply has compressed spreads (premiums).

“The question now is: are the spreads representing the risks that the projects should pay for them? And, when they stabilize, what will be the new equilibrium point for the spreads?”, observes the manager.

According to experts, now is a good time to take advantage of opportunities and position portfolios. “The best times to invest were during a crisis, when you can lock in a high rate. Interest rates won’t stay like this for the rest of your life, so assuming there will be an economic improvement, the return will be higher than what is shown on paper. It’s a bit counterintuitive, but it’s the best time to invest,” says Santos.

Furthermore, Tulio Machado, infrastructure manager at XP Asset, highlights that Brazil is an emerging country, so there is still “everything missing” in terms of infrastructure, and there is solid regulation that provides security. “Brazil invests 2% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in infrastructure, but it should be double that,” says Machado, adding that there is an agenda to be developed in different sectors, such as sanitation, highways, energy and telecommunications.