The Venezuelan political conflict continues in an apparent labyrinth in which Nicolás Maduro, until now, seems to be closer to the goal: being elected president for the period 2025-2031. Meanwhile, the opposition remains cornered, although this time it is less divided.
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The international community is pressing for “free, fair and verifiable elections” to be held, a commitment that Chavismo assumed with the opposition on October 17 on the island of Barbados, under the auspices of Norway – which asked this Saturday that all the agreements – and promoted by the United States, a country that in the opinion of some analysts seems to have given up a lot to the regime and give Maduro the position of great winner.
From that agreement, a series of actions were triggered that until today, at first glance, have allowed Maduro to continue maneuvering as he pleases, such as the ratification of the disqualification of María Corina Machado, the opponent who, if she goes to elections today , would sweep at least 52 percent of the votes, according to several opinion studiesamong them that of the firm Polianalítico, which places Chavismo with 18 percent of votes in those elections.
Given these numbers, it is evident that Chavismo prefers to continue confronting the United States, which reimposed a sanction on the Venezuelan gold industry, Minerven, and threatens to withdraw the licenses granted in October to Petróleos de Venezuela, if “the requirements are not met.” Barbados agreements” or, in other words, Machado is enabled.
(Also read: International pressure increases on Venezuela due to the disqualification of María C. Machado)
These licenses to PDVSA stabilized the national economy with the entry of resources from oil, whose losses since the beginning of sanctions amount to 323 billion dollars, according to the State.
“Indeed, the government of Nicolás Maduro is trying to mock the international community and the negotiation process by making a play on the agreements reached,” Benigno Alarcón, director of the Center for Political and Political Studies, tells EL TIEMPO. of Government of the Andrés Bello Catholic University.
Indeed, the government of Nicolás Maduro is trying to mock the international community and the negotiation process by making a play on the agreements reached.
Alarcón makes this consideration by highlighting that although, literally, the disqualifications were reviewed and some actors were lifted, those who represent a risk continue with the political sanction, as is the case of Machado, who maintains his firm position of be the opposition candidate to compete in this year's presidential elections that remain undated.
“Cause tried, cause firm,” said Maduro on Wednesday in the Supreme Court of Justice, which he praised and considered to have done an “impeccable performance” in the case of the disqualifications.
At that moment, the president took advantage of reading excerpts from the agreement signed with the opposition, emphasizing that there were no specific names of people to be authorized, and that as it was written, the opposition had proposed it.
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“Responding to the gringo threats against Venezuela (…) I tell you, neither sanctions nor violence will not be able to defeat us”Maduro stated in his speech at the Supreme Court in response to the administration of Joe Biden, with which he has direct contact, unlike other moments, such as in 2019, when the White House promoted the imposition of Juan Guaidó as “president interim”, a strategy that failed, as did the imposition of sanctions, which according to a recent report by the US Congress did not meet the objective of removing Maduro from power.
Maduro's skill and strategy
After Machado's disqualification became known, the international community reacted, not just the Biden administration.
Canada, Costa Rica, Chile, and France questioned the decision and demanded it be reversed. Ecuador went further and its president Daniel Noboa clarified that if there were no competitive elections in Venezuela, he would ignore them, to which Maduro responded “he who messes with Venezuela, goes dry”, remembering that this position was taken by other countries when Guaidó He proclaimed himself president, and today, they have once again recognized Chavismo in power.
But, with this “international pressure” it seems that there are no signs of going back on the decisions already made by Caracas.
From a political and geopolitical point of view, Maduro managed to free his wife's nephews, prisoners in the United States accused and sentenced for drug trafficking, a delivery that would be impossible to see given that the United States judicial system is quite severe. with the issue of drugs, Luis Aguilar, director of the consulting firm Polianalítico, explains to this newspaper.
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On the other hand, he also achieved the release of Álex Saab, a subject who was allegedly being prosecuted for money laundering and accused of being Maduro's front man.
The Venezuelan opponent María Corina Machado.
“So, we could say that Maduro, from a geopolitical point of view, continues to demonstrate that he is skillful and that he knows well that oil today continues to be a very important negotiating element for the United States,” insists Aguilar.
And precisely the analyst's statement may be the reason for the secret meeting that Jorge Rodríguez, head of the ruling party, had in the dialogues with the opposition; and Juan González, White House advisor for hemisphere affairs.
Luis Aguilar, director of Polianalítico.
Little is known about the meeting, beyond what some sources revealed: that it was on a Caribbean island and that the issue of sanctions was addressed.
For Aguilar, “it seems” that the interest of the United States in Venezuela, more than achieving a political change, is to stabilize the country to stabilize the region due to immigration and energy issues, knowing that Caracas can provide the oil that the refineries need. USA
But, in addition, rumors are already circulating of an early presidential election, possibly for May. “These statements are not free and it seems that they are part of the conclusions reached by Jorge Rodríguez and Biden's advisor,” insists Aguilar.
These statements also coincide with those of Oscar Schémel, director of the firm Hinterlaces, who considers that “the US. “He is willing to sacrifice Machado for safe and constant Venezuelan oil.”
For the analyst, that was the most important conclusion of the meeting between Juan González and Jorge Rodríguez.
Schémel said through his account on
Behind the Barbados Agreements, what there is is a great agreement for oil, gold and migration. The Biden administration is rethinking its strategy towards Venezuela, as a consequence of the ineffectiveness of the sanctions policy, the drama of migration, tensions in the Middle East and the experience of the Cold War, Schémel points out.
(Also read: Venezuela threatens the US with suspending repatriation flights if it imposes sanctions)
However, for Benigno Alarcón, from the Andrés Bello Catholic University, these “coincidences” between Caracas and Washington do not seem as exact as other voices report.
For Alarcón, if both actors fail to identify a possible area of agreement, be it a place where the interests of the United States and the interests of Venezuela meet, it will be very difficult to reach an agreement.
Apparently there are not many coincidences – according to Alarcón – between both administrations.
The Venezuelan Government thinks that the only interest of the United States is not democracy, but also oil and other things of an economic nature or that have to do with the consequences of the deterioration of the economy in Venezuela, such as the issue of sanctions to prevent migrants from continuing to arrive in the United States, says Alarcón.
“The reality is that I believe that the United States understands that the migration of Venezuelans is not going to stop because the sanctions are stopped, but that migration can be sustained or even reversed if there is a return to democracy, so, I believe that “There are the great difficulties,” says Alarcón.
Petro's role
The Venezuelan opposition has the particularity of betting largely on international pressure. For some it is positive and for others it only shows weaknesses.
“They continue to bet on international pressure because it is one of the few ways in which they can exert pressure,” insists Alarcón, who believes that together with internal pressure, it could possibly have results like in other countries. “You have the case of Chile with Pinochet. When the referendum was called for the results to be recognized and then for there to be a free and democratic election.”
But from Polianalítico they see it differently and consider that what this opposition strategy of asking for help from outside has done is weaken the vote with calls for abstention that set back democratic factors and gave space to Chavismo.
Even so, there are important actors such as the case of Gustavo Petro, considered a political ally for Venezuela. Petro could persuade President Nicolás Maduro to give up electoral guarantees and at the same time persuade the United States government that the sanctions have contributed to worsening the country's economic crisis and migration that also affects Colombia, Aguilar maintains, also considering that “Petro is a great articulator to reach great agreements between Miraflores, the international community and the White House.”
Norway asks that the agreements be fulfilled
Given all the tension, the kingdom of Norway spoke out yesterday about the negotiation and dialogue process and reiterated its mediation commitment through a text published on its X account.
“It is essential that the Partial Agreement on the Promotion of Political Rights and Electoral Guarantees for All, signed in Bridgetown on October 17, 2023, be implemented, as well as everything agreed upon during the dialogue and negotiation process,” the text says.
A few days ago, Jorge Rodríguez assured that the party he represents was ready to form the commission to monitor and verify the Barbados agreements.
He clarified that they would work first to revive the negotiations, this after the opposition denounced that the government partially violated the agreements and would send the complaints to Norway, since the ratification of Machado's disqualification was proof of this.
But Rodríguez pointed out that the Executive would present before this verification commission, all the evidence about the five conspiracies recently revealed – some with the alleged participation of opponents -, which included the assassination of Maduro and assaults on military installations, according to the Prosecutor's Office and that more Well, it was the opponents who were breaking the commitment, since Machado herself was accused of being a conspirator along with other actors in exile.
ANA MARÍA RODRÍGUEZ BRAZÓN
TIME CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS
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