The Paris leader intervenes in the Italian debate. The opening of a crisis in our country can hinder its path towards an encore
FROM THE ENVIENT TO PARIS. P.The two “friends” probably have good reasons not to be too enthusiastic about this endorsement, but Emmanuel Macron – a spectator anything but disinterested – has hinted at his favorite ending for the Quirinale novel that is shaking Italian politics: continuity. Mario Draghi armored in Palazzo Chigi and Sergio Mattarella who remains at Colle to keep his chair warm, at least until the economic-health emergency is overcome.
The French president has a very delicate game ahead of him for re-election and the opening of a political crisis in Italy could hinder his path towards an encore at the Elysée. A phase of instability in our country, triggered by Draghi’s exit from Palazzo Chigi, would end up slowing down the approval of the main European dossiers precisely during the French presidency of the EU. Which is actually a quarter: since the elections are scheduled for April 10 (the ballot will take place on the 24th), all the main events have been concentrated between now and March. Macron has even decided to distribute the informal meetings of EU ministers throughout the Hexagon – from Brest to Marseille, from Nevers to Amiens, the birthplace of Monsieur le Président – in what looks like a real electoral tour. Carbon tax, minimum wage, tax for multinationals, regulation of the digital market, reform of Schengen and the Stability Pact: the meat in the fire that Macron wants to serve his constituents is a lot and little time is available. A political stalemate in Rome could cost him dearly.
This is why yesterday, on the occasion of Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to the Elysée, she outlined her favorite scenario. Answering a question during the press conference, Macron performed the usual premise (“I’m not in the habit of commenting on domestic political issues, especially in a friendly country”) and then unbuttoned: “We are very lucky to have such a courageous President of the Republic and a Prime Minister, pro-Europeans and friends of France. It is an opportunity for France and for all of us ». And therefore, since there is no certainty of tomorrow, it would be welcome if everyone remained in their place.
THEL the problem is that those directly involved seem to have other ambitions. «Relations with the two Italian presidents are excellent – confides an authoritative source of the French government -, even if obviously we cannot be jealous and expect Italy to continue like this for eternity. Certainly sooner or later there will be an “after”, but at the moment we do not yet know when this will happen ». Words that confirm the wish for a “prorogatio”. The scenario would also satisfy investors, worried that the end of the Draghi government would cause “important delays in Italy’s commitment to the Recovery Fund”. And without reforms, the funds won’t come. In a report signed by Filippo Taddei, former head of economics of the Democratic Party, the American bank estimates a possible reduction in the effective absorption of subsidies “between 50% and 75%” which would cost 0.1% growth in 2022 and 0.35% in 2023 (0.15% and 0.55% in the case of early voting).
In addition, there is another emergency to manage: “The health situation in Europe remains worrying,” warned Ursula von der Leyen.
For the president of the Commission, the French presidency semester will be crucial because it will serve to “build the Europe of the future”. The integration process will continue to be governed by the Franco-German axis, but Macron does not hide his intention to “multiply the initiatives with Italy and, when possible, multiply the initiatives by three” with Germany. The head of the Elysée made fun of the “triangle of desire”, admitting that “when you look at three it is complicated”. But France will continue to cultivate special relations with its two main European partners: “Friendship with Germany does not detract from the friendship we have with Italy and vice versa“.
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