Macron, in difficulty to obtain an absolute majority in the French legislative

The first round of the legislative elections, which took place last Sunday, left surprising and even somewhat confusing results, since the representatives of the three main political movements celebrated their victory.

Elisabeth Borne, current Prime Minister, congratulated the Ensemble party, headed by the formation of the Government. “We are the only political force capable of obtaining a majority in the National Assembly”, he stated. On the contrary, the progressive Jean-Luc Mélenchon announced the defeat of the presidential party. “The truth is that the presidential party is defeated and defeated”, he reacted the leader of the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes). Finally, the far-right Marine Le Pen declared: “The National Association is tonight the first party in France, it is evidence, in fact.”

Actually, the first round did not leave any clear winner. Emmanuel Macron’s party gathered 25.75% of the vote, closely followed by the progressive coalition Nupes, with 25.66%. The National Grouping party, for its part, won 18.68% of the vote. The formation of Macron and Nupes will face each other in most constituencies in the second round this Sunday.

Although the two political movements tied, Macron’s party is expected to win the majority of the 577 constituencies, but his challenge is to reach an absolute majority of 289 seats, something that is not assured, since he arrived particularly weakened.

The mixed results of the presidential party

Emmanuel Macron’s “no election campaign” political strategy did not work as well as the president might have hoped. Macron was accused several times of not campaigning and not participating enough in the public debate. The controversial political issues of the Government were even postponed until after the election so as not to generate discontent against his program. Finally, less than two months after the presidential elections, the political debate was weakened and superficial.

But what should have worked in favor of the French leader did not. Ensemble lost 2.5 points compared to the first round of 2017 and arrived very weak. While it managed to win 308 seats in 2017, this year the party is at risk of falling short of an absolute majority of 289 seats.

Although the candidates of Macron’s party will be present in most constituencies in the second round, they face an unprecedented union of the left, which threatens to reverse the balance of power.

Now, the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, uses the rhetoric of making a barrier “against extremes” to try to capture the votes they need and invites citizens to go vote. “Faced with the extremes, only we carry out a project of coherence, clarity and responsibility”, affirmed the prime minister.

The consolidation of the left

After having narrowly lost his place in the second round of the presidential elections, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the France Insumisa, arrived more motivated than ever to be elected Prime Minister of the country in the legislative elections. He managed to create a left-wing coalition, Nupes, bringing his party together with the French Communist Party, the Socialist Party and various environmental parties.

Nupes tied with the Ensemble party and allowed the left to assert itself as the strongest opposition force. However, Mélenchon has little chance of obtaining an absolute majority in the second round and becoming prime minister. Even so, this first round demonstrated the strengthening of the left in French politics and the weakening of the comfortable majority of the presidential party.

A possible record for the extreme right

The type of legislative scrutiny usually does not favor the extreme right. It is a single-member majority vote, which means that the candidate who obtains the highest number of votes wins to the exclusion of all the others. In 2017, Marine Le Pen’s party, which had managed to qualify in 120 constituencies in the first round, with 13.20% of the vote, had to settle for just eight seats in the National Assembly.

Although the National Rally cannot expect to win hundreds of seats like Emmanuel Macron’s party, it does expect to be represented by dozens of deputies this year, and could even break the record of his father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who managed to win 35 seats in 1986.

Agrupación Nacional gained more than 5 points compared to 2017, and is the only party to run alone, without any associated formula, and to register such an increase in votes compared to the last legislative election, something for which Le Pen congratulated on Sunday night.

The three possible scenarios on Sunday

After Sunday’s second round, three scenarios are possible. Emmanuel Macron can win the absolute majority that allows him to govern. In this way, the president could easily have his projects adopted, such as the controversial delay in the retirement age from 62 to 65 years.

In another probable scenario, the president can obtain a majority, but a relative one, that is, having more deputies than the other parties, but not having half the seats plus one necessary to be able to govern. In this case, Macron would have to ally himself with another party to reach this absolute majority, and it will most likely be with the traditional right-wing party, the Republicans.

The two parties would have to come to an agreement when voting on a bill, and this alliance would place Macron’s politics even further to the right.

The last and least likely scenario is that Jean-Luc Mélenchon succeeds in mobilizing his electorate and wins an absolute majority. In this case, Macron would be in a situation of cohabitation in which the presidential party is not the majority party in the National Assembly. He would deprive him of many of his powers. He would retain the power to appoint the prime minister, but one that is consistent with the majority of the Assembly. However, this scenario is highly unlikely.

The record of abstention, the great defeat of the election

Last Sunday, and as in 2017, more than half of the voters did not go to vote. And this year, abstention rose by more than one point, to break its record under the Fifth Republic, with 52.49% of those registered staying at home.

According to Ipsos-Sopra Steria, a polling agency, young people are particularly affected by this phenomenon, since 70% of those under 35 did not vote. The most disadvantaged social classes also tend to vote less. This abstention favors Macron’s party, since his electorate is mostly made up of older people with more resources.

This abstention is problematic as it does not allow the National Assembly to represent the French as a whole. It is explained for several reasons. Young people are not interested in the elections because they do not believe that the Legislature can influence their day to day. They do not feel represented by politicians and even distrust their representatives.

The electoral calendar, which places the legislative elections a few weeks after the presidential elections, tends to favor the victory of the party that was elected in the presidential elections, which discourages voters who do not support this party.

The type of ballot, the single majority vote, also favors the big parties and does not allow an equitable representation of the less important parties. During his presidential campaign, Emmanuel Macron declared himself in favor of introducing proportional representation in legislative elections, but he had already promised it in 2017, before abandoning the project.

Finally, the lack of political debate before the first round also contributed to disinteresting the electorate in these elections.

Getting the French to the polls and having a real political debate are urgent needs in these last days of campaigning, as they are the guarantee of a true democracy.

with local media