Machiavelli said that a fundamental element of politics was fortune, and we have misinterpreted this idea, as if it left us at the mercy of events, simply waiting for good luck, when what we are really trying to do is seduce it. Nobody said that politics was easy, and even less so in the devilishly changing political environments, with chained and unpredictable crises in which we live. It is said that the most important thing in politics is the control of time, but that does not mean that it is a resource that we can use freely when so many actors with very diverse interests intervene and unexpected turns of events occur that disrupt any strategy. Any action (even those that have a clear purpose and obey a well-thought-out planning) takes place in a crazy environment of secondary effects, so that one can be sure that the result will be different and even the opposite of what was foreseen.
As an advisor to princes, Machiavelli would be very lost in Washington today. The mess could not be more complicated for any strategist: a Republican Party in the hands of a crazed candidate, a Democratic Party tied by its commitments to a senile candidate, an attack on Trump whose impact silences any other topic and all in the midst of an extreme polarization that seems to have dramatically reduced the possibilities of talking about anything other than Trump, whether as a hero or a villain. Trump does not need anything else when the focus of attention is not on what he says or intends to do but on what happened or could have happened to him in Butler, while what Biden has done during this term is in the background and public opinion only focuses on his verbal slips.
The attack has raised the stakes that it would end the campaign. Trained in the most adverse situations, Machiavelli would again advise the Democrats not to give up everything and try to turn this fatality into an opportunity. It is not so clear that the attack will catapult Trump to the White House; everything depends on how he uses it and, knowing the character, it is very possible that he will make mistakes in management, that he will use it excessively. The Democrats can also do something in the midst of this unfavorable situation and argue, for example, that Trump’s incendiary and contemptuous rhetoric is the breeding ground for violence that only they can appease.
Biden’s withdrawal from the candidacy may be a stroke of luck that the Democrats must know how to take advantage of. His resistance to withdraw has been an unexpected gift to the Democrats. To understand it this way, it may be useful to think about what would have happened if the order of events had been different. If Biden had withdrawn before Trump’s attack, the assassination attempt would have completely silenced Harris’ alternative candidacy. Despite the difficult situation in which the Democratic Party finds itself, the best thing that could happen has happened: the order of events is now the most favorable for them, that is, Biden’s resistance, the attack on Trump, Biden’s withdrawal, Harris’ nomination as the Democratic candidate. We know that in an electoral campaign, the most important thing is that people talk about you and, in this case, the media attention and the debate will revolve around what it means that there is a black woman with a chance of accessing the Presidency of the United States. Even if she did not win in the November elections, she could prevent the Republicans from having a majority in both Houses.
His success is unlikely, but Biden’s failure was more likely, and that is no longer discussed. Political calculations are always very inexact. There is no omniscient actor who can calculate all this to his own benefit, but rather a multitude of actors who intervene in this devilish whirlwind of politics, more chaotic today than ever, to ensure that fortune smiles on them at the opportune moment. Let us not forget that most of those who are trying will experience a resounding failure. Chance is more present in politics than we find bearable, and that is why the resort to conspiracy theories or Providence (not very divine here, because it apparently benefits some and not others) alleviates this discomfort. In any case, the scenario in politics is always more devilish than divine.
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