The electoral race in Venezuela is already underway, although not entirely clear. Chavismo finally announced that its candidate will be Nicolás Maduro, to seek a third continuous term; while the opposition –for now- he is clinging to the candidacy of the disqualified María Corina Machado despite having swept the opposition primaries.
The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Psuv) will proclaim Maduro this Friday, after according to Diosdado Cabello, vice president of that party, 4,240,032 militants nominated the current president as their candidate.
That number of votes in the ruling party's internal elections shows that this would be the basis of Chavismo for the elections, and that the opposition would have to add more than 5,000,000 to defeat the current president.
The fear is that with Machado disqualified, it is not yet known if there will be a replacement for her as a plan B for the opposition.
In the midst of this uncertainty, rumors and theories have begun that are generating tension and friction in the opposition. For example, it is speculated that the governor of Zulia, Manuel Rosales, seeks to be the standard bearer to replace Machado. Rosales was already in exile and after negotiations with Chavismo he returned to Venezuela and won the elections in the state bordering Colombia.
However, this Tuesday, Rosales ruled out – for now – the possibility that he will replace Machado and stressed that his position will be the same as that held by the Unitary Platform.
“María Corina Machado was elected in the primary and is our candidate, she is the one who leads the opposition. We are constantly working in the Unitary Platform looking for a way to enable María Corina Machado as a presidential candidate, that is our strategy,” Rosales said in an interview for a local radio station.
And these rumors were strengthened after Cabello assured that the parties Democratic Action, Un Nuevo Tiempo (party in which Rosales is a member), Primero Justicia, Fuerza Vecinal, Futuro, MAS, Unión y Progreso, El Cambio, among others, They would nominate the Zulian governor as a candidate for the elections scheduled for July 28.
The ghost of abstention
In addition to fighting against the Government, which has included persecution, imprisonment and exile, the opposition has also faced abstention, a decision that cost them spaces that to this day they have not been able to recover.
In 2012, 2018 and 2020, not going to the polls continues to take its toll. But that ghost haunts again, and, although it seems unlikely, without a Machado-backed candidate, this may be an option that would give Maduro an easier path.
“The substitute candidacy must be defined directly by María Corina Machado and presented in the company of all the parties that make up the Unitary Platform,”
“The substitute candidacy has to be defined directly by María Corina Machado and presented in the company of all the parties that make up the Unitary Platform,” the political scientist from the Central University of Venezuela, Gabriel Flores, tells EL TIEMPO.
For Flores, it is necessary that if the option is taken to replace Machado – who so far refuses to take that path – “he be a person very similar to the opposition” because otherwise “the PUD could play to launch a candidate.” without articulation and approval from María Corina Machado, arguing that they cannot leave the voters without options, but said play could become an own goal as long as the reaction of Machado and his environment is not favorable.”
To counteract this specter of abstention, there are those who have put their names up for grabs to register as candidates, which must occur between March 21 and 25 as stipulated by the National Electoral Council.
Andrés Caleca, for example, who faced Machado in primaries, stated that he is willing to register his presidential candidacy if the opposition again makes the mistake of calling for abstention: “We cannot lose by forfeit again,” he said this Tuesday on their social networks.
Other proposals
More than 20 civil society organizations and political parties grouped in the “Espacio Consenso” platform, proposed this Tuesday “the creation of a political direction to define the method in the face of future electoral obstacles.”
According to Ángel Godoy, from the Democracy and Inclusion Movement (MDI), it is necessary and urgent to create a method that, together with Machado, can define a method mechanism to overcome any obstacle that arises.
Godoy believes that “exits to these obstacles” must be proposed in order to confront Chavismo. , and together with the candidate, the actions to be taken are decided.
ANA MARÍA RODRÍGUEZ
TIME CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS
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