PT member stated that the coalition against what he called “extremism” was a demonstration of maturity; with the alliance, the left should indicate the new prime minister
The President of the Republic, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) celebrated the result of the French legislative elections this Sunday (7.Jul.2024). Contrary to expectations, the right wing was defeated in the election, in 3rd place, behind the left and the center, which joined forces. With the alliance, the left wing should indicate the new French prime minister.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Lula said he was happy with the result. He called it “demonstration of greatness and maturity” the decision to form a center-left coalition against what he called “extremism” RN (Régroupement Nationale, right), party of Marine Le Pen, and her allies.
Lula also mentioned the victory of the Labour Party in the United Kingdom last week, which returned to power after 14 years, and appointed its leader, Keir Starmer, as prime minister. For the Brazilian president, the two results in Europe should be an inspiration.
“I am very pleased with the demonstration of greatness and maturity by the political forces in France who united against extremism in today’s legislative elections. This result, as well as the victory of the Labour Party in the United Kingdom, reinforces the importance of dialogue between progressive segments in defense of democracy and social justice. They should serve as an inspiration for South America.”he said.
THE ELECTION IN FRANCE
The right wing was defeated in the 2nd round of the elections for the National Assembly this Sunday (June 7, 2024). In 3rd place, the RN (Rally National, right wing), Marine Le Pen’s party, and its allies won 143 seats in the Lower House of Parliament, according to projections by The World, with only 3 seats left to count. The polls closed at 8pm (3pm Brasília time).
The result, significantly below expectations after the first round on June 30, where 297 seats were estimated, shows that French President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble of calling new legislative elections after the right’s advance in the European Parliament paid off. And the alliance between the center and the left was crucial in preventing the RN’s expected victory.
O “Cordon sanitaire”which encouraged less competitive candidates to withdraw from the second round to reduce the right’s chances, was effective in blocking the rise of a prime minister from the National Regroupment. Jordan Bardella (RN, right), was the most likely to take office. However, neither the center nor the left will achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats out of the 577 needed to form a government on their own.
Thus, France will likely see the formation of a coalition government between the NFP (New Popular Front), led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and the Juntos coalition, which includes Macron’s Renaissance party. This will be the first French government without a clear dominant force since World War II. Projections from the The World indicate that the left-wing coalition could win 177 to 192 seats, while the Juntos coalition is expected to win 152 to 158 seats.
The future of cohabitation between the parties in the National Assembly is still uncertain, but Macron avoided a crushing defeat, as his coalition will outperform the right. However, this does not exactly represent a victory for Macron.
When the French president dissolved the National Assembly after his defeat in the European Parliament elections, he said the measure was necessary to allow the French people to choose their leaders. In the second round of voting on Sunday (7 July), his coalition still received fewer votes than the left-wing union, and the discontent of segments of the French with his government is still visible.
UNDERSTAND THE FRENCH ELECTORAL SYSTEM
The national legislative elections in France are by pure district: only those who obtain the majority of votes in their district are elected to Parliament.
The country is divided into 577 electoral districts in which there is a similar number of voters (the idea is to preserve the concept of “1 man 1 vote”): the elected parliamentarians arrive at the Legislature representing constituencies in which the weight of the electorate is equivalent.
This does not happen in Brazilian elections. The 26 states and the Federal District are the “districts” in which federal deputies are elected. TSE data from 2022 indicate many asymmetries. Here is a comparison between São Paulo and Acre:
- The State of São Paulo he had 34,667,793 voters in 2022 and had the right to elect 70 federal deputies (i.e. only 1 seat in the Chamber for each 495,254 voters from São Paulo);
- The State of Acre with 588,433 voters in 2022 chose 8 deputies (1 deputy each) 73,554 Acre voters).
These disproportions do not occur in the French system: the deputies who go to Parliament represent constituencies with similar numbers of voters – that is, respecting the democratic principle of “1 man 1 vote”. In Brazil, the votes of people from Acre, for example, are worth much more than those of people from São Paulo.
Furthermore, in France, for a candidate to be elected to Parliament in the first round, it is necessary to obtain at least 50% + 1 of the votes. Only 76 candidates managed to reach this mark in 2024. The other 501 will be defined this Sunday (7 July).
Another particularity of the French system is that not only the two candidates with the most votes advance to the second round, but also the remaining candidates who received at least 12.5% in the first round. In Brazil, in two-round elections (mayor, governor and mayor) only the two candidates with the most votes can participate in the final round of voting. In France, there are situations where up to four candidates compete.
This characteristic of having several candidates running in the second round in France allows some candidates to drop out and support others who they consider to have a better chance of winning. This is exactly what is happening now, with Macron having orchestrated this movement to try to isolate right-wing candidates in several districts.
France, unlike Brazil, has a semi-presidential system. The president is directly elected, but shares part of the responsibility with the prime minister, who is chosen by the legislature. Today, the French prime minister is Gabriel Attal, from the same party as Macron.
To nominate someone for the post of prime minister, the party or front must have at least 289 deputies. If the right wins the elections this Sunday (7 July), France would enter a system known as “cohabitation”: a centrist president (Macron) and a right-wing prime minister.
Macron was elected in April 2022 and his term is 5 years. He will remain in office until 2027.
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