The Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, celebrated this Monday, January 1, one year at the head of the presidency of Brazil with some achievements in the portfolio, especially the reduction of deforestation in the Amazon and the country's return to the international stage, but also with controversies and numerous challenges, especially given the prevailing economic uncertainty.
Elected by less than two points over his right-wing predecessor Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022), Lula had a turbulent start to a third term, after leading the course of the South American giant between 2003 and 2010, supported by its high popularity.
A week after his inauguration, thousands of Bolsonaro's followers invaded the headquarters of public powers on January 8 in Brasilia, dissatisfied with the leftist's victory.
The assault is considered “the most brutal attack against democracy” since the military coup of 1964 by Justicewhich charged around 2,000 people and has already sentenced around twenty to sentences of up to 17 years in prison.
(Also read: Jair Bolsonaro, rise and fall of the Brazilian right-wing leader)
Supporters of Jair Bolsonaro invaded the seats of power in Brasilia on January 8, 2023.
After the coup attempt, Lula focused on getting the Brazilian economy back on track, on the country's return to global forums and, above all, in trying to pacify democracy and the internal political climate.
After the riot, in fact, many conservative parties aligned themselves in the defense of democracy and some became members of Lula's Government, which opened spaces for them in his broad and pragmatic coalition.
One year later, According to a survey released by the Datafolha institute, Lula, 78, has the support of 38 percent of Brazilians. The figure is lower than that registered after a year in his first term (42 percent), but exceeds the support obtained by Bolsonaro in the same period, in December 2019 (30 percent).
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Lula must face more challenges in this mandate. He did not have a honeymoon in the first six months and faces a hostile Congress
But, the balance of his management is full of contrasts. According to André Rosa, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia, “Lula must face more challenges in this mandate. He did not have a honeymoon in the first six months and faces a hostile Congress,” with a mostly right-wing composition.
On the positive side, The Government managed to reduce the devastation of the Amazon, the largest rainforest in the world, by about 51.5 percent in 2023 compared to 2022.
According to official data, the devastated area in the Amazon fell from the record of 10,277 square kilometers between January and November 2022, the last year of the government of the right-wing Jair Bolsonaro, to 4,980 square kilometers since Lula assumed his new mandate on December 1. January 2023.
Area affected by illegal mining in the Itaituba II Environmental Forest (Brazil).
For Suely Araujo, from the Climate Observatory – a group of Brazilian NGOs -, this was due to the “intensification of the supervision of Ibama”, a public entity that had suffered budget and personnel cuts under the Bolsonaro government.
Lula, who promised to end deforestation by 2030, also approved eight new indigenous reserves, considered by scientists to be bulwarks against global warming.
(Also: Lula sets a deadline until 2030 to end deforestation in the Amazon)
But while the situation improved in the largest rainforest on the planet, it worsened in the Cerrado, an extensive savannah rich in biodiversity located south of the Amazon. Added to this is the fact that the government of Lula did not give up on oil and gas exploration projects, while announcing his intention to join OPEC+, in the middle of the COP28 climate event.
“Being a leader on climate issues and integrating OPEC+ are incompatible functions,” Araujo emphasizes.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks at a press conference.
The progress of the economy also smiled on Lula: the GDP performed better than expected in the first three quarters and growth of 3 percent is expected in 2023.
Unemployment is the lowest since 2015 – it fell to 7.5 percent in the September/November quarter -, inflation seems controlled below 5 percent and the Central Bank reduced the reference interest rate four consecutive times, after months of criticism against Lula for keeping it at 13.75 percent.
But with expectations of a slowdown in activity in 2024, Economists estimate that the government could have problems balancing public accounts. This year, the Government expects growth of 2.5 percent, although the market and international organizations point to 1.5 percent.
At the international level, for his part, Lula's great objective in 2023 was to recover the country's presence in the world. and put an end to the strong ideology that Bolsonaro imposed on his diplomacy.
Some of his first decisions were to reintegrate Brazil into the Union of South American Nations (Unasur) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac), and reestablish relations with Venezuela, frozen by Bolsonaro.
(Keep reading: Ukraine, Venezuela and the mistakes that have cost President Lula his popularity)
But the external agenda went further and encompassed the world. Lula visited a total of 24 countries, in 15 trips that took him almost 70 days outside Brazil and took him to Africa, America, Asia and Europe. Among his most notable visits are those he made to the United States and China or his participation in the Brics summit in South Africa and the G7 in Japan.
“I traveled too much, but I had to do it to recover the image of the country,” he declared last week.
Joe Biden received Lula da Silva in Washington in September 2023.
The political scientist from the University of Brasilia points out that Lula “stood out in improving diplomatic relations, which were deteriorated by the pandemic and his predecessor.” But his statements on sensitive issues sparked controversy.
He said, for example, that Russia and Ukraine share responsibility for the ongoing war following the invasion launched by Moscow in 2022, asserting that Israel's treatment of children and women in Gaza in its response to Hamas attacks was “equal to terrorism.” ” and He came out in defense of socialist President Nicolás Maduro, describing complaints of authoritarianism in Venezuela as a “narrative” of detractors.
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Other matters have also been left in the pipeline. One, the conclusion of the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union (EU), which is pending despite the fact that it bet heavily on it during the second half of the year, when Brazil held the presidency of the South American bloc.
The other, working on the relationship with the new Argentine president, Javier Milei, a right-winger close to Bolsonaro and whose inauguration Lula chose not to attend, despite the importance of the neighboring country for Brazil.
The president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, shakes the hand of his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolás Maduro.
Lula has said that 2023 “was time to plant and rebuild” and that he hopes to reap “a generous harvest in 2024,” especially economically. But in 2024 he will not be exempt from great political challenges.
Lula will have to concentrate on internal politics, with a view to the municipal elections in October. These elections, in which the mayors of 5,568 municipalities will be renewed, are considered a thermometer of the management of the federal government almost halfway through the four-year term and of the mood of the voter already facing the presidential elections, which will have their next edition in 2026.
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This time, in addition, they will have added value, since they will once again put face to face, after the presidential convulsions of 2022, the movement embodied by Lula and the right led by Bolsonaro.
Lula will also have the challenge of sustaining the economy amid forecasts of deceleration and addressing the problem of citizen insecurity, after a year marked by waves of violence and crime in Rio de Janeiro and Bahia.
INTERNATIONAL EDITORIAL
*With AFP and EFE
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