Between the Government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of Brazil, and that of Gustavo Petro, of Colombia, several parallels could be made. Both, from the left, assumed power to replace right-wing governments. Both also lead countries that have territory in the largest tropical forest in the world: the Amazon. Therefore, it is not surprising that the two presidents led the Amazon Summit that took place in August 2023 in Belém do Pará (Brazil), in which the eight countries that have a part in this jungle agreed on 113 measures to protect this ecosystem. But if there is something that both Lula and Petro have highlighted, it is that, after many years, they managed to significantly reduce deforestation in their countries.
In the middle of last year, the Colombian Ministry of Environment announced that, during the year 2022, 123,571 hectares of forest had been erased nationwide, which meant not only a 29% reduction in deforestation compared to 2021, but the lowest figure reported since 2013. For its part, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell by 22.3% between August 2022 and July 2023, according to data reported by the Brazilian Space Research Institute (INPE). This after the policies of the former Government, that of Jair Bolsonaro, led deforestation to its highest peak in the region after 15 years.
However, if parallels can be drawn between both Governments, there is also a point that distances them: the energy transition. Or to be more exact, the intention to leave behind fossil fuels, such as oil, gas and coal. Although it is a separation that arose from the Amazon Summit, where one of the great absences from the agreement was to stop the expansion of the oil and gas frontier in the Amazon – as Petro wanted -, the difference in speeches became even more evident during the climate summit, COP28, which took place in Dubai at the end of last year.
While at this event it was announced that during January Brazil will join OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, as an observer; Just one day away, the Petro Government joined a block of countries calling for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty to be signed. This is a proposal that was born from the small islands in the Pacific, some of the most threatened by climate change, which is why Colombia became the largest producer of coal and gas to join this initiative.
Lula, at the time, tried to call for calm. He called a press conference to clarify that Brazil was joining OPEC+, that is, in an observer role and without having to meet oil production quotas, and that it had joined this club to help convince the majors. producers of this fossil fuel to allocate their profits to a fair transition towards renewable energies.
Despite this, days after the COP28 ended, the Brazilian Government auctioned more than 602 lots for oil and gas exploitation. Furthermore, as noted in the Report on Production Differences, published by the UN, Brazil's energy plan for 2032 seeks for “oil and gas to increase by 63% and 124% respectively, between 2022 and 2032,” and The current administration has said that it wants to “transform Brazil into the fourth largest oil producer in the world”
Given this, Ricardo Baitelo, project manager at the Institute of Energy and Environment of Brazil (IEMA), pointed out to Future America that “Lula has a culture and mentality about oil that is old. In his head, the profits from that production will go to health and education, as part of his second wave. But that has many negative effects.” The environmental expert assured that “renewable energies do bring necessary transformations for the country such as green jobs and Lula knows it, which is why he also talks a lot about green hydrogen.”
But, in addition, Lula's Government has also shown its intention to begin exploring oil in the Amazon of his country through the state-owned Petrobras. An idea that has not gone down well among environmentalists, neighbors like Petro, and among members of parties related to his government. “Brazil's integration into OPEC, even as an observer, is one of the ambiguities of Brazilian environmental policy,” commented Juliano Medeiros, president of the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL). Faced with the fact that there is currently no oil exploitation in the Brazilian Amazon, although there is a small amount of gas exploration in the state of Amazonas, the PSOL, he comments, has called in Congress against the creation of new oil wells. oil exploration in this region. “Now, what we are doing is discussing what is the best strategy to make this a reality, whether through a bill or forming a parliamentary front,” Medeiros added.
Petro: from speech to reality
Since his campaign, Petro has talked about leaving fossil fuels behind. This speech, at least, has been repeated in several settings: at his presidential inauguration, at the United Nations Assembly and, of course, at COP28. And as Giovanni Pabón, director of the Energy Area at the Transforma thinking center, explains, there is a gain in this alone. “It is a speech that has become a global reference because Colombia is a developing country, with a middle income, with a non-diversified economy and with a high energy dependence on fossil fuels,” he comments. . “That has put it at the top of world interest.”
The challenge, in his eyes, is that it has been difficult for the Government to move from that discourse to national policy. “The people who will be affected by that transition still see that speech as something negative,” he says. “It is necessary to clarify what this transition is about, how much it affects us, how long it will last and that is very important. Although in practice there is progress.”
For example, the issue of limiting fossil fuel subsidies – despite being a highly unpopular measure – is already moving forward in Colombia. “Although it was an exercise that was done more with an economic intention, the price of gasoline rose by almost 43% throughout the year 2023. This increase, which had to do with a reduction in subsidies for this fuel, not only discourages its use and pushes for greater efficiency, but also avoids waste.” And it is a decision that goes in the right direction of what the climate commitments ask for. Also, Pabón comments, the Government is working on how to get rid of the 19 coal plants that are used to generate electricity in the country.
But on other issues there are still enormous challenges: the operation of renewable energies was almost paused during 2023 and not much has been said about actions to electrify Colombia. “Today we should have almost three gigabytes of renewables, but we are barely at 500 megabytes.” [cuando la intención del Gobierno es lograr seis gigas para 2028]”, clarified the expert. Regarding electrification, he assured that “there is still no policy that goes hand in hand with the energy transition.”
Finally, there is a critical point that Colombia will have to face: what will happen to Ecopetrol, the state oil company? “The Government is getting into this issue and in the right way,” says Pabón, since the idea is to position it as a pioneering company in energy, including renewable energy. Currently, 90% of the company's profits come from oil, so the Government's plan is that by 2040, 30% of Ecopetrol's profits come from other businesses, such as renewables. “This, together with a plan to accelerate tourism and the reindustrialization policy that has to strengthen the Ministry of Commerce much more, would allow Colombia to also make an economic transition,” concludes Pabón.
“Brazil and Colombia have a lot in common. We are two great multicultural democracies, marked by the valuable contribution of indigenous and Afro-descendant peoples. And we also
share the commitment to bring the Amazon to the center of our policies,” President Lula wrote on X (formerly Twitter) months before the summit was held in Belém. But the truth is that the idea of completely protecting the Amazon will not be a near reality as long as one of them is seduced by continuing to exploit oil, especially in that region.
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