After a first round that ruined the forecasts of the polls and snatched from Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the chances of reaching the presidency without the need for a ballot against Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil now faces weeks of great political uncertainty and an intense presidential campaign and aggressive in an already divided country.
(Also read: Brazil: what do Bolsonaro and Lula lack to win in the second round?)
Former President Lula da Silva, 76, prevailed with 48.3 percent of the vote against the far-right president, with 43.2 percent.
The main pollsters had projected a comfortable scenario for the leftist leader, with an advantage of up to 14 points that gave the possibility of a victory in the first round.
But the numbers corresponded, instead, with the “optimistic” scenario defended by the 67-year-old Bolsonaro campaign team, and that leave him with the possibility of achieving re-election.
“The polls underestimated the strength of Bolsonaro. This may be related to the type of sample,” said Guilherme Casaroes, a political scientist at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation center.
(You may be interested in: Bolsonaro: ‘Change can be worse; look at Argentina, Colombia and Venezuela’)
Why did the polls fail in Brazil?
For Casaroes, the result has, in part, a regional reading: the polls failed to predict the leadership of the right in the large electoral colleges, mainly Sao Paulo, the richest and most populous state in Brazil.
There, the surprise was given by the former Minister of Infrastructure Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas, a reserve soldier and a faithful squire of Bolsonaro, who contradicted the polls and advanced to a second round with an advantage.
Another of the factors that explains the difference between the polls and the ballot boxes, according to specialists, would be the so-called “useful vote”. In other words, a last-minute transfer of votes from Labor Party member Ciro Gomes to President Bolsonaro.
Despite being a reference to the center-left, Gomes, fourth with 3 percent of the vote, has been one of Lula’s main critics and in recent years has sheltered voters disappointed with the Workers’ Party (PT).
For Bruna Santos, from the Brazil Institute of the Wilson Center, an analysis center in Washington, “Bolsonarianism won the first round”, since “it came out reinforced in Congress and the Senate. Not to mention that it extended its base in the governorates.”
(Also: Brazil: the keys to the close presidential election this Sunday)
Bolsonarism won the first round. He was reinforced in Congress and the Senate. Not to mention that he spread his base in the governorates
At least nine of the candidates supported by the president were elected governors in their states, compared to five of those backed by Lula da Silva.
In Congress, the Liberal Party (PL), to which Bolsonaro belongs, increased its base as the largest bench in the Chamber of Deputies (from 76 to 99, almost a fifth of the total), and also became the largest minority in the next Senate (adding eight places, for a total of 15 seats from 81 senators in total).
In addition, the center parties won more positions, while Lula’s PT advanced less than expected, according to the preliminary results.
This balance of forces would reduce room for maneuver for an eventual government of the left-wing leader. “Regardless of who wins the second round, he is going to have to govern with a more right-wing, more liberal Congress,” says economist Igor Macedo.
An open ending in the second round
In any case, “the end is open and in an even situation,” according to Leandro Consentino, a political scientist at the Insper institute.
According to him, Bolsonaro will have stronger support than Lula in important states, citing the cases of Rio de Janeiro, where the governor aligned with Bolsonaro, Claudio Castro, was re-elected in the first round; Sao Paulo, which will have a second round with a former Bolsonaro minister as the favorite, and Minas Gerais, where a governor with an anti-Workers Party profile won. The three gather 40 percent of the electoral register.
And for Marco Antonio Teixeira, from the Getulio Vargas Foundation, Senator Simone Tebet, third with 4%, and Gomes, can play a “relevant role” if they declare their support for Lula or Bolsonaro.
Tebet, the other big surprise of the elections, promised that he would announce his position at the “right time”, while Gomes asked for time to speak out.
(Keep reading: Brazil: who is Simone Tebet, the big surprise of the elections?)
In the parties of Tebet and Gomes there are sectors that had already anticipated their support for Lula. With that, Lula would have a greater space to fish than Bolsonaro, who in principle would have a difficult task of adding votes beyond the extreme right and the most conservative sectors.
“The ballot promises to be a fierce dispute. The president will invest in reducing his rejection among young people and women and increase that of the PT. It will be an aggressive campaign,” said political scientist Paulo Calmon.
The leadership of the PT already asked Lula this Monday to look harder for center voters to guarantee victory. Bolsonaro, for his part, has not defined his agenda but anticipated that he will focus a good part of his activities in Sao Paulo, the largest electoral college.
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