The fifth meeting of the European Political Community, a forum that brings together the countries of the EU and its neighbors, has become a kind of group therapy in the face of Donald Trump’s victory in the United States. The worst of the forecasts for Europe has been fulfilled with the return to the White House of the populist leader, who turned the continent upside down in his first term.
It has been a shock for the vast majority of European leaders, except for the host of the event, the Hungarian far-right Viktor Orbán, who has assured that he toasted with vodka – and not with champagne because he was in Kyrgyzstan – when the results were known: “It was “They wanted to put him in jail, confiscate his assets and kill him, and now he is president.”
Europe has been preparing for this new change for some time and the message sent by practically all the heads of Government and State who attended the meeting in Budapest has been one of calm. Each speech resembled a ‘coach’ session: strengths and opportunities in the face of a complicated geopolitical scenario, in which the EU freely admits its numerous competitive weaknesses.
Mr. Macron
Macron has emerged as the ‘mister’ of a meeting held at the Ferenc Puskás stadium, the curious setting that Orbán has chosen for the occasion. “We should not comment on whether it is good or bad. He is American, he will defend American interests, he is legitimate; but we have to be prepared to defend European interests. That is the question and it must be our priority,” the Frenchman told his colleagues at the round table.
“It is a decisive moment in history,” he told the rest of the leaders, whom he asked if they wanted to “read a story written by others” – among whom he cited Putin or China – or if they wanted to write their own story. . “Our economies are strong, our countries have sophisticated defense systems and we represent something (…). If we decide to be aware of what we represent geopolitically and commercially, it is an incredible power. There is no other market of 700 million people as united by the history of interests and values as the one that brings us together around this table,” he encouraged them.
Going from being herbivores to carnivores
“The world is made up of herbivores and carnivores. If we decide to remain herbivores, the carnivores will win, and we will be a market for them. I think it would at least be a good idea to choose to be omnivores. I don’t want to be aggressive, I just want us to be able to defend ourselves on each of these issues,” concluded Macron, who has asked his counterparts not to “delegate” the security of the continent to the US, as he has done until now.
What they maintain in the EU is that this time Trump’s victory has not caught them by surprise as in 2016 and that the continent is prepared for the uncertainty represented by the populist leader’s new mandate and the possible decisions he makes on the other side of the Atlantic, such as the imposition of widespread tariffs. Continental leaders have also downplayed the political tsunami in Germany with the expulsion of the liberals from the government of Olaf Scholz, who was absent from the meeting.
“The future of Europe is in our hands,” said the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. “It is important that we analyze what our common interests are and work on them,” he added about the relationship with the United States. “We have to be more masters of our destiny, not because of Kamala Harris or Trump, but because of our children,” said the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, in the same direction, warning that the EU is a “respectful” partner. ” but that must be “respected”.
“Europe cannot change the world, but it can change itself to face a changing world,” said Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mytsotakis. “What is important is that our willingness remains open to working together with the United States; There also has to be will on their part,” said Belgian Alexander de Croo: “Europe is ready to take care of itself, also from the point of view of security.”
In the press conference after the meeting, Orbán acknowledged that there has been “agreement” that they should react to the elections in the United States. “There was agreement that Europe has more responsibility for its security. “We cannot expect the Americans to protect us,” said the Hungarian Prime Minister.
The message, which began to take shape at a breakfast of the ambassadors of the 27 in the midst of an electoral hangover and which involves focusing on the club’s own performance rather than on what the power on the other side of the Atlantic can do, is shared by EU leaders and not only.
The most enthusiastic about Trump’s return has been the Albanian Edi Rama: “There has been a lot of excitement, perhaps not in the right way, about his return. My experience tells me that when he was president everyone said that NATO would be weaker, and it was stronger. Let’s not get hysterical before checking reality.”
Orbán sows discord with Ukraine
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who called Trump on the phone after his victory, has maintained a low tone, despite the fact that one of the main analyzes of the consequences of the Republican’s return to the White House is the possibility that the Washington’s position regarding kyiv, for whom American aid is essential. “We hope America is stronger. This is the kind of America Europe needs. And a strong Europe is what America needs,” he expressed.
But Orbán has taken advantage of the loudspeaker that hosting the summit gave him, with hundreds of journalists present, to sow discord with Ukraine by ensuring that there are different opinions among those who “want peace or continue the war”, a binomial that he reduces to a ceasefire as a “precondition” for starting peace talks or continuing to provide aid to kyiv. “There are more and more people who want peace,” he said, convinced that the number has increased after the US elections.
“No,” Zelensky concluded in a press conference immediately afterwards. However, he himself had sent the message within the room that they cannot consider giving in to Putin. “Some of you here have advocated for Ukraine to make concessions to Putin. “It is unacceptable for Ukraine and suicide for Europe,” he defended. Zelensky recalled that this ceasefire is defended precisely by a head of government who opposes Ukraine’s entry into NATO.
The Rutte strategy: warn Trump of the dangers of Russia and China for the US
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also had good words for the president-elect. “It is their success,” he said about the increase in defense spending by allies. “It was he who encouraged us to reach 2% [del PIB]”, recalled the Dutchman. Many countries have already arrived and his predecessor left the position ensuring that that percentage was a floor. “We need to do more,” Rutte acknowledged.
Rutte also already has a strategy to try to convince Trump of the need to keep Vladimir Putin at bay given the allies’ fear that he will sponsor an agreement that would mean the loss of Ukraine’s sovereignty over some of the invaded territories. “Increasingly, North Korea, China and Russia are working together against Ukraine,” summarized the head of NATO, who assured that it represents a “threat” to Europe, but also in the Indo-Pacific and, therefore, to United States: “I look forward to sitting down with him and seeing how we collectively navigate confronting this threat and keeping our part of the world safe.”
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