Press
“Code Red” is the name of the thought game: the invasion of the Baltics. But how can Latvia stop Russia’s possible offensive? The time for anti-tank ditches is running out.
Riga – “We are digging up the road and creating an anti-tank ditch here so that no vehicles, including tanks, can move on this road,” says Kaspars Lazdins. The lieutenant colonel of the Latvian armed forces is quoted as saying Kyiv Independent with reference to news from the Latvian channel LSM. The soldier refers to the efforts of the Baltic states to prepare themselves for defense after the war Ukraine war. Cited as the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century”. The New Zurich Times the Kremlin boss Wladimir Putin regarding the secession of the Baltic states from the former Soviet Union and reports on the mood of the three Baltic states as correspondingly “alarmed”.
In order to make the likely seriousness of the situation clearer to the West, there is also spilling out of the Ukraine Pessimism over: The Balts are now being reinforced in their fears by Ukrainian Major General Vadym Skibitsky, who expects that Putin could overrun the Baltics within seven days. Newsweek reports on an interview with Skibitsky Economistin which, according to the magazine, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence demanded from the West Russia to oppose resolutely.
“The Russians will take the Baltics in seven days,” he said. “NATO’s response time is ten days.” Skibitsky uses May 9th as an opportunity to warn about Russia’s ambitions – May 9th is celebrated in Russia as “Victory Day” of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany, like the Deutschlandfunk reported. Gabrielus Landsbergis also sees dark clouds gathering on the horizon: “We feel that the war is close to us,” he quotes ZDF the Lithuanian Foreign Minister.
Putin’s potential problem: dragon teeth and Czech hedgehogs
A multi-year project is starting in Latvia, at the end of which the border between the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with Russia or its enclave Kaliningrad is to be secured with at least 600 bunkers, plus barbed wire and depots from which, in the event of a defense, tank barriers made of concrete blocks, the “dragon’s teeth” and so-called “Czech hedgehogs” could be deployed against attacks at lightning speed. “Czech hedgehogs” are three waist-high angled steel beams that are welded together and can block tanks from passing through. The first line of defense in Latvia is being built about a kilometer from the border with Russia, near the Terekhovo border checkpoint in the Ludza region, according to the broadcaster LSM reported.
“Reinforced concrete bunkers, machine gun nests or positions prepared for artillery systems – this is all a complex topic. It depends on which border section it is. Of course, no one is going to build buildings in the middle of a forest or on the edge of a swamp to stop armored vehicles.”
The Balts, who started this project in January this year, want to build their “fortress wall” from a combination of natural and artificial barriers – this part of the project is referred to in the Baltic media as the “anti-mobility plan”. The creation of minefields is still being discussed. At the moment, however, sketching its course still seems to have to overcome various obstacles. In the Baltic States, the hinterland of the border is not a territory under unrestricted control, but is privately owned. It is unclear whether the government is already allowed to use all of the planned plots. Anyway reported LSM that the owners retain their ownership rights and only transfer the right of use.
Latvia’s future trump cards: reinforced concrete bunkers, machine gun nests, artillery positions
But it also seems to be used strictly according to the rules, as Kaspars Lazdins explains. The depots for ammunition still seem to have to be planned precisely, according to the legal regulations for the storage of these goods and the military needs, as he says – this is one point among many of this mammoth project, which is reminiscent of the Romans’ Hadrian’s Wall in the Britain they occupied or the French Maginot Line at the beginning of the Second World War.
“Reinforced concrete bunkers, machine gun nests or positions prepared for artillery systems – this is all a complex topic. It depends on which border section it is. Of course, no one will build buildings in the middle of the forest or on the edge of a swamp to stop armored vehicles,” said Raimonds Graube Baltic Times.
Latvia’s former commander-in-chief expects construction to take several years: “The natural conditions are very different in Estonia and Latvia, so the bunker defense systems will differ from country to country,” he said Baltic Times quoted. The crucial question is whether Vladimir Putin seriously believes he can subjugate the Baltics and, if so, when does he think the time is right to do so? In the meantime, NATO partners, especially Germany, have increased their presence. Justina Budginaite-Froehly fears that this alone will hardly deter him Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington DC.
Germany’s nightmare with an announcement – the “danger of war tomorrow”
“While this is clearly an improvement over the alternative, it is clear that NATO troops on the ground, even if upgraded to brigade-sized units as agreed at the NATO summit in Madrid, would require very significant reinforcements “to withstand a full-scale Russian invasion,” she writes. “Is an attack by Russian troops on the Baltics or Poland really imminent?” asked Dominic Possoch and
Adrian Dittrich at the end of February for the BR24. “As soon as the hostilities in Ukraine have essentially ceased, the clock will start,” answers Christian Mölling.
“As soon as the hostilities in Ukraine have essentially ceased, the clock will start.”
The security and defense expert of the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP) speaks of a “danger of war tomorrow, not today,” as he says. Various experts argue about when “tomorrow” could be: The DGAP According to Mölling, estimates a period of between six and nine years. Other experts expect up to five years.
Putin’s potential plan: “Code Red” – attack on the Baltics
Vladimir Putin could perhaps strike from now on. “Instead of spending weeks preparing (like in Ukraine), we will start the offensive with what we have at the front. Yes, NATO will have noticed some military reinforcement, but it will not be certain. We will not communicate our intentions to much of our own government or foreign entities; Even China will not be aware of this,” writes scientist Jan Kallberg. For the CEPA In January he published a scenario from Vladimir Putin’s possible strategy: “Code Red: How Russia conquers the Baltics”.
According to the current state of NATO readiness, Polish troops would probably only be operational in the Baltics 72 hours after the alarm was raised, and other notable forces would probably only be deployed after two weeks. He describes the current NATO reinforcements in the Baltics as “stumbling forces”, meaning from the enemy’s point of view at most troop strengths to slow down an invasion instead of being able to throw it back. Kallberg speculates that these troops could also be bypassed by the aggressor. He is a researcher at Army Cyber Institute in West Point and assistant professor at the United States Military Academy in West Point.
NATO negligence: “Gap between imagined and actual preparedness”
His actual operation, “Code Red,” would be simple: the first day would begin with intensive rocket fire on critical infrastructure. Fast forces of tanks and helicopters, protected by rocket artillery, would advance through northern Estonia and Tallinn, where a battalion of marines would simultaneously land. To the south, a wedge from Belarus pushed northwest through Lithuania toward Kaliningrad, then turned south to hold off Polish spearheads before advancing forces conquered Lithuania. According to Kallberg’s plan, Latvia would be put in a tight spot and initially ignored.
According to Kallberg, Russia would then detonate an EMP bomb over the Baltic Sea – the electromagnetic pulse of which would paralyze Gotland and thus the coordination of supplies across the Baltic Sea. Airborne units would then seize the island; With the territories conquered in a flash, Vladimir Putin would then have the trump cards in his hand to threaten NATO with a nuclear strike if it wanted to fight back the occupied areas.
The scientist Kallberg attests that the Russians have an “excellent chance” for an attack against the Baltics simply because of the behavior of the West, as he writes: because of its “gap between imagined and actual readiness”.
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