Laia Balcells, professor at Georgetown: “American society is polarized, but institutions are resilient”

We interview the Catalan researcher Laia Balcellsresident in USAto analyze how the upcoming elections for the presidency of the first world power are experienced, which are mainly disputed donald trump and Kamala Harrisand the democratic health of this country. The political scientist has lived in the United States for twenty years, a country she knows well and where she works as Professor of Political Science and Conflict Resolution in the Georgetown University (Washington DC).

Laia Balcells is Professor of Political Science and Conflict Resolution at Georgetown University. Doctor from the prestigious Yale Universityhas also been a professor and researcher in duke and Princeton. He has published numerous academic articles, some of them awarded with important awards, and in 2017 he published the book Rivalry and Revenge: Politics of Violence during Civil Warin which he connects prewar politics to patterns of violence during civil wars, with special attention to the Spanish Civil War.

In the book, the author argues that both local political rivalry and revenge play a role in violence against civilians. The work has been translated into Spanish by Catalan International Institute for Peace and Bellaterra Editionswith the title Rivalry and revenge. The politics of violence in civil wars. Balcells has been kindly assisting us since Washington D.C. to talk about the imminent presidential elections, which will take place in the United States this Tuesday, November 5.

First of all, we would like you to tell us what your daily life is like in the capital of the United States, where you live and work.

Well, the truth is that my daily life is very normal. We live in Washington DC, relatively close to the vice president’s residence, Kamala Harrisbut that doesn’t affect us too much. Yes, it is true that from time to time they block traffic, because their motorcade with the police passes through the streets, but living here does not affect too much on a daily basis. Being the capital, exceptional events can occur in Washington DC, such as everything that happened on January 6, 2021, with the assault on the Capitol, and that does affect everything.

We are on the verge of a presidential election in the United States, his adopted country. How are the elections presented?

I have lived in the United States for twenty years now, I arrived just before the elections that George W. Bush won in November 2004. Regarding this year’s elections, I notice that there is nervousness. It is true that there always is, but this year more than usual, undoubtedly. The reason is because the people around me, especially university professors, but also the fathers and mothers of my children’s school, see that we are not only risking the color of the Government for the next four years, but also the democracy of United States, because there is a contender who is saying that he will not accept the result of the elections. This environment that I am talking about has a clearly Democratic profile: here in Washington DC the Democratic Party has always obtained very good results.

From the other side of the Atlantic, American society often appears strongly polarized and confrontational. Is it really like that? What is your perception?

Political scientist Adam Przeworski defined democracy as a system in which, among other things, the loser of the election accepts the results. If there is one of the contenders who says that he is not going to accept it, that makes you nervous, it is inevitable. We don’t know how far he’s willing to go. donald trump and also his followers, but for example he has recently made some very serious statements suggesting that weapons should be pointed at former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney, who has said she will support Kamala Harris.

Trump has a reactionary and authoritarian ideology. We must pay attention, for example, to what he thinks about the immigrant population. I believe that democracy and respect for human rights are truly at stake in the immediate future. The elections are expected to be very close, in which few votes in several counties in the hinge states could decide the result, increasing the feeling of polarization. This is especially evident in these divided states, such as Pennsylvania, Nebraska or Wisconsin.

Polls suggest that the election will be very close. What do you think is going to happen?

Right now there is a situation that we could define as tense calm, waiting to see what will happen with the recount, especially in places where things will be very close. There is also tension over what will happen after the election, obviously.

In Pennsylvania, for example, things are neck and neck, and there is talk that polling station workers will have to be protected because there is fear that there may be threats or even attacks. This makes us think of situations that we have seen in other places in the world, where there has been electoral and post-electoral violence. In the United States, until the election of Donald Trump, such a context did not exist. Perhaps there was tension or polarization, but the rules of the game were respected. The great change that Trumpism has brought has been to question the rules of the game: the electoral system, the counting of votes, etc.

It is true that there was all the controversy of the 2000 election, in which Al Gore lost to George W. Bush by a handful of votes in Florida and the results had to be settled in the Supreme Court, but I believe that the voting procedure In the country it had never been questioned so much. We now live in a situation in which rumors, false news about cheating or malpractice are spread, which generates uncertainties and possible tensions and violence.

Whatever the result, do you think the tension will ease the day after the elections?

Unfortunately I don’t think so, because the results will probably be very close and this will cause these tensions to be perpetuated or even increase. The results will be questioned, especially if Kamala Harris wins. It is very difficult for things to be resolved immediately and it is very difficult to predict both the outcome of the elections and what will happen next. We are now in a calm before the storm situation, we will see what happens in the coming weeks and perhaps even months.

I trust the country’s institutions, although I believe that they have suffered degradation due to Donald Trump and the events of recent years. North American institutions are resilient, and the fact that it is a federal state allows the different states to act as a brake in certain situations. In a presidential system the president has a lot of power, but institutional checks and balances, especially through the power of the states, help moderate it. Unfortunately, the Supreme Court is no longer an effective brake, since it has become politicized with a majority of conservative judges who support the initiatives of the Republican Party. However, states still have enough power to counter some of these measures.

In his research work he has worked on a key issue, which is the role that political rivalry can subsequently play in possible situations of violence and revenge. Do you think that this apparent polarization that exists in the United States could end up leading at some point to a civil conflict with violence of a certain intensity?

We know that situations of extreme competition, as is expected to occur now, can be accompanied by violence, as Yale professor Steven Wilkinson has explained, referring to the case of clashes between Hindus and Muslims in India, or as I I showed the same in the case of the Spanish Civil War in relation to the electoral results of February 1936, or in the Ivory Coast with the elections of November 2010.

Now we are experiencing a situation with a lot of uncertainty in the United States, and I believe that the best thing that can happen is that there is a victory for Kamala Harris with a margin, to avoid questioning the results. Now, this is unlikely and, therefore, we must get used to the idea that there will be a complicated situation after the elections. It does not mean that there necessarily has to be a civil conflict or even violence, but tensions and a lot of uncertainty can be generated at an institutional level with the vote count next week, then with the vote of the delegates in the Electoral College during the month of January, or at the time of the inauguration of the president.

One factor to take into account is gun ownership in the United States, a fairly well-known issue. We also know that there are paramilitary groups or armed militias that, in collusion with Trump and the Republican Party, are willing to use the threat of violence or even violence itself, to defend a Trump victory (regardless of the election results). . These militias are dangerous, especially if there is no unanimous rejection and they are tacitly given legitimacy, as Trump has done with groups like the Proud Boys. And another factor to take into account, finally, is that, as Roger Petersen, professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), has explained for example, resentment is an emotion that can lead to violence. And in recent years, Trumpism has especially fueled resentment among various sectors of the North American population.