With the US elections around the corner, the poll results do not reflect a clear winner in any of the states of the country.
The Republican candidate, Donald Trump, has closed the gap on Kamala Harris in the last two weeks, according to surveys. The Democrat replaced President Joe Biden as candidate for the White House and generated great enthusiasm among citizens, which was reflected in the polls; unlike the hypotheses before Biden’s abandonment, which They indicated that Trump would win by a landslide.
According to portal data FiveThirtyEight from two weeks ago, Harris had a 58% chance of beating Trump in the elections next November 5. However, data from recent days indicate that The Republican would have a 52% chance of winning.
The closest elections in recent years
Donald Trump has closed the gap, although the poll forecasts change every day. Last weekend, The difference between both candidates was less than two percentage points in the seven decisive states. According to the data of ABC News this Monday, a 48% of those surveyed are in favor of Harris and a 46%of trump.
Every vote is necessary
Surveys on electoral processes are always useful to approximate their results, however, They may not be able to get the exact results of the elections right.
In the US, they use an electoral college system to elect the president, so the place where the votes come from may be more important than quantity. The United States is made up of 50 states, but only a group of them can make a difference in the final result.
The situation in pendulum states
The pendulum states They are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The polls are very tight there, so It is not possible to clearly state who they consider the winner.
According to the surveys at the beginning of this week of ABC Newsin several of these states there is only a difference of one or less than one percentage pointso it cannot be said that any candidate completely leads in any state in the country by more than 0.2 points. In Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania They lean more towards the Republican, but the minimal change can turn the polls around.
Of the seven, Pennsylvania is the most important state for the candidates, since it is the one with the greatest number of electoral votes and which the winner would use to obtain the 270 votes to be president.
#Kamala #Harris #Donald #Trump #polls
