You could call it a political metamorphosis: When António Costa and Kaja Kallas boarded the night train to Kiev in the eastern Polish city of Przemyśl on Saturday evening, they were, from a purely formal perspective, two ordinary citizens of the European Union. Strictly speaking, even unemployed.
When the Portuguese and the Estonian left the train in the Ukrainian capital on Sunday morning, they were two of the most important representatives of the Union: the new EU Council President and the new High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy. After a nomination and confirmation process that has now been running for months, the terms of office of Costa and Kallas had officially begun on the way – promptly at midnight Brussels time, the train was just leaving Lviv behind.
Of course, that was anything but a coincidence. Costa and Kallas agreed that the change at the top of the EU should be accompanied by an unmistakable gesture of solidarity with Ukraine. And what could be a stronger symbol than not spending your first day in your new office, a Sunday at that, comfortably in peaceful Brussels? But in Kiev, one of the Ukrainian cities that Russia has been firing bombs, missiles and drones at non-stop for weeks? That very Sunday morning, when the train pulled into the Kiev train station, the alarm had just been lifted and the Ukrainian air defense had shot down some Russian drones.
“The situation on the battlefield is very, very bad,” said Kallas on the way to Kiev. “We have to show the Ukrainians that Europe is with them.” Costa justified the joint trip in a similar way. “We come with a clear message: We continue to stand behind Ukraine and give it our full support financially, militarily, humanitarian and economically,” he said.
More symbol than concrete help
However, these expressions of solidarity do not change the fact that the visit initially has more symbolic than tangible significance for the Ukrainian government. Costa and Kallas did not bring any new military or financial aid promises with them. There are no new decisions from the EU governments on this yet. Most recently, the EU and the USA released a loan worth $50 billion for Ukraine in the fall. The loan is to be financed from the assets of the Russian Central Bank that have been frozen in Europe and will be paid out over the next few years.
The visit from Brussels does not change the fact that the most pressing question that is currently overshadowing the future of Ukraine has still not been answered – and cannot be answered by the Europeans: Since Donald Trump won the presidential election in the USA, In Brussels and the capitals of the EU countries, there is speculation about how the future US president will deal with Russia and Ukraine. During the election campaign, Trump boasted that he could end the war within 24 hours – but how that will work is unclear. Likewise, whether he will actually go so far as to simply stop American arms aid to Ukraine. Perhaps, says Kallas, Trump realizes that a Russian victory in Ukraine is also a victory for China, Iran and North Korea, which support Moscow. And that can’t be in America’s interest, she says.
However, the big concern in Brussels – and probably also in Kiev – is that Trump will, over the heads of Ukraine and the EU, agree on a deal with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin that will force a ceasefire, and then – as it happens As a European government representative puts it – “throws the problem at our feet”. Without American involvement, however, it is hardly possible for the Europeans to continue to support Ukraine so that it can defend itself against the Russian invaders. Likewise, Europe alone cannot give the country the security guarantees that are necessary to interrupt or even permanently end the fighting. Under these circumstances, a ceasefire that Trump is talking about would only give Russia the opportunity to reinforce and reorganize its army.
This consideration may be one reason why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has always spoken out against a ceasefire, is now, according to his own statements, ready for a ceasefire. It sounds like he came to the conclusion that he had to make a concession to Trump. However, Zelenskiy links this concession to the admission of the Ukrainian territories not occupied by Russia into NATO. If Kiev has to submit to the inevitable, then it can at least demand the highest possible price, diplomats describe Zelensky’s logic.
According to this plan, the unoccupied part of Ukraine, which would be accepted into NATO, would then be under the protection of the alliance, including the United States – similar to the Federal Republic of Germany during the Cold War, which also belonged to NATO, although the rest of Germany, the GDR was part of the Warsaw Pact. Zelenskiy demands that Ukraine should receive an invitation to join as early as next week, at the last meeting of NATO foreign ministers, at which the USA is not yet represented by a minister appointed by Trump.
Kallas is also convinced that a ceasefire – or a negotiated peace solution – in Ukraine can only be credibly secured in practice if NATO accepts the country and guarantees its security from Russia. “There is a lot of speculation now about what will happen if this or that happens. “Who will ensure peace then?” she says. “I am very clear on this: the strongest security guarantee is NATO membership. All other things are not so clear.”
Kallas, on the other hand, is rather skeptical about the deployment of a European security force, as is being discussed in some political circles – an opinion that may well be realistic from a military point of view, but which is nevertheless noteworthy for the EU’s highest-ranking security politician. This may also be because Kallas has perhaps not yet fully completed the change of role from head of government of the proud – and well protected from Russia – NATO member Estonia to foreign representative of the European Union. A trip on the night train from Przemyśl to Kyiv is probably not enough.
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