This next Political campaigns conclude on May 29. Three days of saving are coming and the June 2nd, everyone to vote. The coin is in the air. Every vote counts. The good news is that the decision is far from being “a procedure.” There is uncertainty in it result. It depends on the citizens, far above the party machines or the government’s efforts to mobilize its faithful. I understand it in two stages, from elements considered “intangible” in the process and the success or failure of the installation of a narrative.
I consider as a political-electoral “intangible” that which is impossible to control by the actors themselves, read matches, candidates or authorities. While, the narrative is a consequence of an intention, more or less effective, by each of the teams. In this case, there are only two: Brunette and his allies against the parties of the Strength and Heart Coalition for Mexico (PRI, PAN, PRD and PAS).
In the first line, I highlight for the analysis of those in the know three key intangibles to understand the electoral result, whatever it may be. The first, the so-called “switchers” determine a good part of the victory. This elector You have decided to vote, but you still don’t know who. He wants to understand what the difference is between one and the other candidate, being that “everyone is equal.” Of every 10 people found during door knocking in 87 days of the campaign, 4 belong to this category.
Second, the June 2 election is a breakup electionas was the choice of 2000 and 2018. Citizen participation determines the victory of either side, as much as the direction of the country. In the first case, Fox he took the PRI out of Los Pinos with 63% electoral participation; AMLO He did the same with the three dominant parties during the last 30 years, he achieved it with 61% participation. If 60% of the electorate comes out to vote, Morena will have lost the presidential election.
Third element, there is a very high level of hidden voting in large sectors of the electorate, District 01, the state and the country. The problem with surveys is the method. There is great difficulty in measuring “non-response”. Specialized literature traditionally understands this phenomenon as a vote to punish the government in power to give a more concrete idea. A survey with statistical validity in Federal District 01 (Mazatlán, Concordia, Rosario and Escuinapa) requires asking 1,000 people, expecting a response from 700. Today, to obtain that same level of response you must ask 1,600 people. It’s very high!
If the decision is far from being “a procedure” as MORENA accuses it, then something was done well in these 90 days of the campaign. Three things to keep in mind.
First, this is an election about the future. Gone is that irresponsible idea about “continuity or return to the past.” I say well, “irresponsible” because those who govern are not responsible. Doesn’t respond.
The past was judged in 2018. Today the ruling party is rated. Today we vote prospectively. It is endorsed whenever we consider whether his government raises or deteriorates our quality of life. This is a “more even floor” game that rewards people’s effort and merit, not “a second floor” of conformity.
Second, lies as a form of government have done us a lot of harm. Lies kill, impoverish and discriminate. The invention of a falsehood instrumented as “truth” gave way to the dead during the COVID-19. His ideological preference destroyed 17 educational programs, without any evaluation involved. Its systematic denial of reality has left Mexico with 12,000 girls and boys dead during the six-year term of the current government.
Third, the Opposition candidates of Strength and Heart for Mexico They are distinguished from the and those of BRUNETTE, in one thing. While the former desire shared power, in the Powers of the Union, at the levels of government (Federal, state and municipal), between civil society and government, the latter desire to have all the Power: absolute power.
He June 2nd your task is vote for you and yours. Assuming ourselves as a generation means building a new Cultural Victory for our time. I am sure and confident that we will rise to this challenge. Vote and let’s throw them out! It smells like Victoria.
Thank you for so much and for everything. See you at the polls.
So be it.
Juan Alfonso Mejía is a Doctor in Political Science and a social activist in favor of education.
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