“Asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer represents a significant impact risk. The last analysis of the ESA has reduced the probability of an impact with the earth in 2032 to 0.001 %. Planetary defenders continue to watch any other asteroid that can get too close. ” With these words, the European Space Agency (ESA) on Tuesday, February 25. Almost a month after the space rock became a mass issue.
That same morning, in 20bits we had the opportunity to talk to Juan Luis Cano. He is the Coordinator of the Information Service of the ESA Planetary Defense Office. And it is Spanish. His daily work includes supporting and organizing the equipment that calculates the trajectories and the probabilities of asteroid impact and, as can be deduced, they have had A quite moved February.
Cano also participates in forums where mission designs are discussed to mitigate the risk of asteroids, Collaborating with the NASA International Asteroid Alert Network And, in addition, it coordinates the projects that the European Union wants ESA to develop in planetary defense.
But an important part of your day to day is to speak with media such as 20 minutes or for audiences of the educational environment with a clear objective: Sensitize on an issue around which there may be a lot of alarmism And, especially due to Hollywood, many myths and fears based on uncalcious events. Of course, Cano is clear: “You don’t have to go crazy, but You have to be aware that there is a risk”
Let’s start at the beginning. What is your function in ESA?I am the coordinator of the Information Service of the Planetary Defense Office in ESA. I dedicate myself to various tasks, including supporting and coordinating the teams that are making calculations on the trajectories the probabilities of impact, as well as to participate in different forums in which we talk about the mission designs that would serve to mitigate the risk of asteroids, hand in hand with the international asteroid alert network and the mission planning group. In addition, I coordinate the projects that the European Union wants ESA to develop.
What projects is carrying ESA in the field of planetary defense? Is there anything that cannot be disseminated and classified?To begin with, we do not have classified projects, everything is public. We have two main work areas:
Asteroid observations: A group dedicated to observing asteroids, especially interest asteroids, such as 2024 YR4 or others in our risk list.
Calculation of trajectories: A group that is dedicated to calculating the trajectories of these objects and the possibilities of impacting with the earth in the coming years.
As for the projects, we are working on several missions:
Flyeye telescope: A telescope dedicated exclusively to asteroid observationthat we are testing in Matera, Italy, and that next year we want to move to its definitive location, to the Observatory in Monte Mufara, in Sicily.
HERA MISSION: launched last year, in October, and that will have an overflow of Mars on its way to the Asteroid Dimorphos.
Ramses probe: It will be launched in April 2028 to fly Apofis in 2029 for a few months.
NEOMIR PROJECT: An infrared telescope that we want to place at Lagrange point between the sun and the earth To observe the asteroids that come from the direction of the Sun and that we cannot observe because they come from the illuminated face.
How does Spain contribute to these missions? (Telescopes, talent, government …)In the Hera mission, for example, there are several Spanish companies involved. The flight mechanics (GMV) group has been very involved, particularly in the guidance, navigation and control system. I also know that there are different elements of hardware that Spanish companies have developed.
For Ramses and Neomir, we are in a very initial phase of development, but there is a company for Ramses that will direct the entire project and hire subcontractors, so there are probably Spanish companies involved.
Regarding observatories, Both the IAC and the IAA of the Roque de los Muchos in La Palma have facilities and telescopes that serve to study asteroids. The Roque de los Muchos is a fundamental point in Spain for observation and to obtain their physical properties, from their size to its composition.
We have been talking about 2024 YR4 for two weeks. However, the probability of impact against the Earth has fallen from 3.1%, the highest recorded, just 0.0001%. Is this normal?Indeed, This is normal when objects will not impact the earth.
When an asteroid is discovered, the first observations allow Have a first trajectory with a big mistake. There are a number of errors in the measures that, when trying to know how the object will behave in the future, there is uncertainty in its movement.
By increasing the number of observations, space is limited of solutions and uncertainty becomes smaller. If the Earth remains within that area of uncertainty, the probability of impact grows.
But if the area of uncertainty leaves the earth outside, there is a pronounced fall in the probability of impact and disappears from the risk list.
This is how the risk of an object close to Earth is evaluated. But what are the most important parameters to continue in your monitoring?First, We need to know how far we will be able to observe the object.
Then, The size of the objects is important. It is not the same as impacting an object of 40 meters to one of 100 meters. Typically, depending on the size, the impact consequences are multiplied by 10. It is not trivial.
With optical observations, we do not always know if we are observing a small but very bright object – which a lot reflects the sunlight – or a large but dark object – which does not.
That is why the James Webb space telescope is relevant, because observing in infrared it is easier to determine the size of the objects. Asteroids, upon receiving solar radiation, they heat and emit thermal radiation, which says a lot of size.
What advances are being achieved in improving the prediction systems of neos trajectories to be able to anticipate possible threats?The planetary defense is an issue that It has been developing in the last 25 years. Since the early 2000s, asteroid risk monitoring systems have already worked. Over time, we have greatly increased the ability to discover asteroids, putting more telescopes. Already We have about 38,000 discovered…
The problem is that hundreds of thousands or millions of objects are still missing to discover. We talk about neos, objects that can pass near the earth.
We are working hard to continue improving, some examples are the Flyeye telescope of ESA and the Vera Rubin telescope, which will come into operation this year. Space telescopes such as No Surveyor of NASA and Neomir of ESA will allow us to multiply the amount of objects we are going to discover. The James Webb also allows us to obtain measures in infrared.
You have said that you carry 38,000 discovered. How much of concerns should we be the common of mortals because an asteroid clash against the earth?The problem with asteroids is that they are very small risks, but with relatively large possibilities of impact. There are millions of objects to discover that they are close to Earth.
The debate with asteroids is not whether it will happen or not, what we do not know is when. With that knowledge we have, we have some responsibility to be prepared against that risk.
It is evident that today we are not seeing bodies impact every month. Objects such as Tunguska of 1908, about 50 meters, once impact each millennium. Objects like Cheliábinsk’s 2013, about 20 meters, impact once every century.
They are events that are not very frequent, but that occur. Do not alarm people, but say that we have to continue working on this, put enough media to have a list mission that allows us to do something when there is a problem.
In case an asteroid came, are there more likely to be very large or that it is very small?The asteroid population grows very quickly when the size decreases. There are about 1,000 objects of more than a kilometer and about 30,000 objects of more than 300 meters. In the range of 50 to 100 meters, such as 2024 YR4, there are half a million objects and in the range of 10 to 30 meters, such as Cheliábinsk, there are about 50 million.
It is more likely to impact a smaller than a larger object. While the greatest, the easier it is to detect it with time. Small objects are more difficult to discover and see enough time to reactalthough, obviously, its effects if they will impact are more limited.
An object not yet discovered can give us a scare in the lowest range of the sizes table. For example, Cheliábinsk’s, which came from the direction of the Sun, we couldn’t see it in advance.
This whole theme can lift a lot of yellow and alarmism. How does ESA public communication and education on planetary defense addresses, especially in the context of a possible threat of impact?We do not have a specific training or education program, but we give many talks and invite schools to the ESA centers. We try to explain how everything works without being catastrophists. It is always appreciated that there are journalists who worry about asking things and finding out how the planetary defense works. It is important that society becomes familiar with this kind of thing because cases like those of 2024 YR4 we will see them more and more in the news.
What has been the most interesting or exciting project in which you have participated?I have worked in many space missions. I worked on the Don Quixote project, which was the precursor of Dart and Hera. He put the fundamental bricks of what these missions have been. Right now, work directly for the Planetary Defense Office also loves, as well as the possibility of giving this message to people and telling them that We have a specific group that is dedicated to protecting us.
What message would you give to people regarding asteroids, especially considering that from now on it will be increasingly common to see asteroids such as 2024 YR4?Do not go crazy, but you have to be aware that there is a risk and that society is putting the means to face it.
It is like when one knows that he lives in a seismic zone and acquires awareness of a series of protocols that has to develop to protect against the possibility of an earthquake.
Little by little we have to educate society in the fact that there is a certain risk and that we are putting the means to face it. In some cases, certain measures and actions will have to be taken, but you don’t have to put a catastrophist plan much less.
Society and space agencies are putting the means to face that risk in an efficient way.
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