JPMorgan lists 10 scenarios that could impact the market in 2024

The investment director at JPMorgan Asset Management, Michael Cembalest, created a list of the 10 main scenarios that could have an impact on the investment market in 2024.

For Cembalest, the probability of the US economy entering a recession has dropped significantly and, if it happens, it will be a mild recession.

However, 2024 will not be a peaceful year for investors, as the North American GDP (Global Domestic Product) is losing pace, while the S&P 500 will have 1-digit returns (median). Furthermore, the new year holds some surprises for individual investors, who should pay attention, according to Cembalest.

Read some of JPMorgan's predictions for 2024:

1. O dollar will maintain stability, varying around 7% more or less, and will preserve its 50% share of global trade;
2. O Department of Justice and/or the trade authority will win one of the antitrust cases against Google, Amazon, Meta or T-Mobileafter more than 20 years;
3. the president of the USA, Joe Biden will withdraw from re-election for health reasons and the Democratic Party will nominate a new candidate;
4. The Mass adoption of Level 5 autonomous vehicles will be significantly delayed because of growing public opposition. Errors during the tests will be serious, causing not only blockages for rescue teams and an increase in traffic jams, but also pedestrians being run over;
5. Losses on syndicated loans will exceed defaulted consumer loans for the first time. This will make it difficult for companies to access urgently needed liquidity;
6. The attempt at dollarization in Argentina will fail due to several problems. Ultra liberal President Javier Milei needs a 2/3 majority to change the Constitution. Furthermore, it is necessary not only to substantially increase foreign exchange reserves, but also to drastically increase the savings rate. Even if this is achieved, the country suffers from low productivity and a creditor to support the monetary anchor in case of need;
7. The war in Ukraine will continue without respite, despite Russia having 315 thousand casualties and wounded and 2/3 of its tanks destroyed. This will oblige Europe to comply with the 2006 NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) treaty, spending 2% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) on defense. The amount not invested in European defense since 1983 is US$2 trillion.
8. you US regional banks are off the bottom and will stabilize in 2024. That's thanks to the bailout measures, as banks can now get up to 100% of the face value of capital at the Fed. Despite losses on commercial real estate and devalued government bonds, U.S. regional banks will have a price-to-book ratio of at least minus 1.0 in 2024, expanding its advantage over European competition;
9. Large US cities will suffer blackouts and even the supply of natural gas will not be safe, due to the lack of investment in infrastructure. Extreme weather and electrification greatly increase peak demand, making places like New York, New England, and the West Coast vulnerable to power outages;
10. there will be a covid vaccine that can be inhaled, effectively preventing infection, as this form of administration generates immunity in the mucous membranes. Several candidates are in the testing phase and are already showing promising results, so initial approval in 2024 is not unrealistic.

With information from Investing Brazil.