The steps of the last few days cast doubt on the future of the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement
The unionist revolt against border controls between Great Britain and Northern Ireland after ‘Brexit’ and other aspects of the ‘Brexit’ Protocol has accelerated after last week’s regional elections. It can cause the collapse of the institutions created in the Good Friday Agreement and break the trade agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom.
The possibility that the crisis over the Protocol will destroy the system of governance designed in 1998 was considered by observers of Northern Ireland politics before the elections. The most optimistic predicted that the resolution would require at least a second vote. What happened in the last few hours justifies the pessimistic forecast.
On Tuesday night, hours after the Government announced a legislative program that only included a law on Northern Ireland based on an agreement between the parties a decade ago, the Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, published a statement in the one that rejects proposals that the Commission presented in October and affirms that it is ready to “take action to stabilize Northern Ireland”.
The minister offers a list of examples of the bureaucratic procedures required by the EU to prevent the region from being a port of entry and exit for illegal goods in the EU Her interlocutor, the Vice President of the Commission, Maros Sefcovic, has reproached the British Government that it does not offer “creative” reforms and has once again closed the possibility of negotiating the treaty.
Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), has expressed, after speaking with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, that “we are finally reaching the time to prepare to act.” He will keep his seat in Westminster “until there is a solution on the Protocol”, instead of taking the post of deputy chief minister in Belfast that is supposed to be his.
pulses
It does not go back but increases the stake. MPs from the largest unionist party will meet on Friday at Stormont, the monumental building in east Belfast that houses the Assembly and the offices of the regional government. Donaldson will decide with them if they nominate the ministers of the shared Executive. If they don’t, the autonomy activity will be further weakened.
It is not the first time that the system has collapsed due to the withdrawal of one of the two parties that necessarily share the leadership. Sinn Féin brought it to a standstill from 2017 to 2020 with the resignation of Deputy Chief Minister Martin McGuinness. To avoid this vacuum, the London Parliament approved a law in February that allows the Assembly and ministers to remain active in these cases, with limited powers.
The restoration of autonomy now depends on the DUP. Their electoral program stated that they will judge any reform of the Protocol by these principles: that trade does not shift to other markets, that there is no border in the Irish Sea, that it gives the people of Northern Ireland a voice in the laws that govern them , that there are no controls on goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, that there are no new barriers if they are not approved by the Assembly and the Executive.
It is not conceivable that the European Commission will delete at least five articles of the Protocol, regulating the movement of goods and the governance of the common market, to satisfy London or the unionists. Boris Johnson’s government, who is distrusted by 84% of the Northern Irish population, according to a recent poll, however, seems willing to start the procedures for a prolonged confrontation with the EU with no imaginable pact in the coming days.
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