Javier Milei seeks to undermine bilateral relations with Brazil and Bolivia

Argentina’s President Javier Milei insists on undermining relations with his neighbors. He already did so with Colombia’s Gustavo Petro. Now he has escalated his personal fight with his Brazilian counterparts, Luiz Inácio Lula de Silva, and Bolivia’s Luis Arce. He called the former “corrupt” and “communist” some time ago. Lula da Silva demanded an apology from him for saying “nonsense” and the far-right leader responded by skipping the Mercosur summit of presidents to be held in Asunción next Monday. To make it clear that he has no intention of concord, he will travel to Brazil this weekend to participate in an event of the Brazilian far right together with former President Jair Bolsonaro, Lula’s declared enemy. He accused Arce, meanwhile, of spreading a “false accusation of a coup d’état” due to the military uprising last Wednesday, and of leading a “socialist government” that puts “Bolivian democracy in danger.”

In just over six months of government, Milei has made seven trips abroad, a record for an Argentine president. But none of them were state visits or included countries that are relevant to bilateral relations. The far-right leader even broke with the custom of making his first trip as president to Brazil, with whom Argentina is part of Mercosur, the common market that also has Paraguay and Uruguay among its partners.

The Brazilian Foreign Ministry prefers to tone down the personal fight between Milei and Lula. They do not consider it a snub that the Argentine is not in Asunción with his Mercosur counterparts and they emphasize that the bad relationship between the presidents has not affected, at least until now, the functioning of the bloc. “Lula and Milei do not speak to each other, but they have not given instructions for the work teams of both foreign ministries not to do so either,” says a source from Itamaraty, who recalls that the functioning is similar to that they had when Bolsonaro was in Brasilia and the Peronist Alberto Fernández was in Buenos Aires. “Bilateral relations have enough muscle to withstand a period in which there is no good presidential dialogue, there are areas where things go by themselves,” he adds.

Despite Milei’s insults against Lula, the Argentine made sure that as soon as he won the elections, his current foreign minister, Diana Mondino, flew to Brasilia to calm diplomatic waters. He then returned on an official visit. And when last month Lula’s government asked the neighbouring country for information about Bolsonarists fugitives from justice, the government sent the information within a few days. In Itamaraty they also remember that it took less than 24 hours to resolve a problem with the payment of a gas shipment that Brazil urgently sent to Argentina to avoid supply cuts in the middle of an unexpected cold wave.

The current tensions between the heads of state of both countries are, despite everything, more intense than those between Bolsonaro and Fernández, who were also ideological antagonists, but that relationship was not fluid either. The former Brazilian military man did not congratulate his Argentine counterpart when he won the elections in 2019 and they shook hands for the first time at a G20. But, as many of their terms coincided with the pandemic and confinement, it was less evident that the relationship between the presidents was conflictive.

Now, ahead of the Mercosur summit in Asunción, the Bolsonaro clan has organized the annual convention of the Brazilian far right for next weekend. And, As revealed in X by Eduardo Bolsonaro, Deputy and the family’s link with the rest of the far-right populist international, Milei will be there in person to give a lecture and hold a bilateral meeting with Jair Bolsonaro. Also scheduled to speak is Chilean José Antonio Kast, who was a presidential candidate, along with the main Bolsonarist deputies.

The far-right meeting is being held under the umbrella of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), an American organisation that organises summits between the main international leaders of the most radical right. This Sunday is also a significant date for the far right around the world because France is holding the second round of legislative elections and polls suggest that Marine Le Pen’s party, winner of the first round, could complete its victory.

The Brazilian convention will be held in Balneario Cambouriú, a beach town in the southern state of Santa Catarina, in the most Bolsonarist part of Brazil.

Milei’s absence from the Mercosur summit and his presence in Camboriú a day before fits into the ultra’s doctrine for foreign relations. “Milei sees a world of leaders, heroes and entrepreneurs who are doing well despite the State putting obstacles in their way,” says Federico Merke, professor of International Relations at the University of San Andrés. “That’s why he doesn’t mind meeting friendly leaders from another country and not seeing the presidents. That doesn’t make him any noise, and he builds his own transnational network with libertarians from all over the world,” he explains. This heterodox approach also applies to Brazil, partly fueled by what Merke considers a loss of mutual relevance between countries. “In a scenario where Brazil proposed itself as a regional leader, having Argentina at the table was important. But it is not so important when, as today, it proposes itself as a more global leader. Shared interests diminished even before Milei and Brazil depends less on Argentina. There is a deterioration in the relationship where Milei’s gestures matter less and less,” says Merke.

The secretary of international relations of Pro, the party of former president Mauricio Macri, Fulvio Pompeo, believes that, despite everything, the far-right politician has not made a good decision by not attending the Mercosur summit. “It is a lost opportunity for Argentina and for Milei. She could express her vision before her peers in the region. Even to put into discussion how closed and paralyzed Mercosur is,” he says.

Climbing with Bolivia

Bolivia had so far been outside Milei’s accusatory radar. But this Sunday, the Casa Rosada published a statement from the Office of the Presidency where it confirmed the version that there was a “self-coup” in La Paz perpetrated by Arce, as promoted by the Bolivian right and also by former president Evo Morales. The government of the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) responded by calling its ambassador in Buenos Aires, Ramiro Tapia, for consultations, and requesting explanations from the Argentine accredited in La Paz, Marcelo Adrián Massoni. The Bolivian foreign minister, María Nela Prada, considered the statements of the Casa Rosada “unfriendly and reckless,” reports Fernando Molinafrom La Paz.

“We regret that internal and external political interests, which already actively participated in 2019 in the breakdown of the constitutional order, including through the sending of ammunition, are once again trying to threaten the stability and institutionality of the Plurinational State,” the Bolivian government said. This was a reference to the Argentine Minister of Security, Patricia Bullrich, who in 2021 was charged, along with former President Mauricio Macri, for allegedly having sent weapons to Bolivia in 2019 to support the Government of Jeanine Añez, considered de facto by the current Bolivian administration.

It will be Milei’s foreign minister, Diana Mondino, who will once again pick up the pieces of the president’s mess. Her office announced that, for the moment, there are no plans to replicate Bolivia’s retaliation.

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