Javier Martín Vide, climatology expert: “After more than three years, drought in Catalonia has ended”

The historical drought that Catalonia suffered has come to an end. This is how of course Javier Martín Vide, Professor of Physical Geography of the University of Barcelona (UB) and one of the main weather experts in the country. After more than three years of lack of rains and progressive loss of reservations in the reservoirs, which forced the Generalitat to decree for the first time the state of water emergency in 2024, the situation improved slightly that year. But this March, in just fifteen days of rainfall the state of the swamps of the internal basins has turned around: they have gone from 30% to 50%.

How do you value the rainfall episode of recent days in Catalonia? How much do these rainfall were not recorded?

It has been an accumulation of episodes. Since the beginning of climatological spring, which covers from March to May, we have seen general rainfall episodes that, without having a torrential character, have been accumulated regularly, not compulsive. It has had a character – between quotes – more Atlantic than Mediterranean. We have seen drizzar and Sirimiri! In addition, it has been very distributed throughout the territory, especially in the headwaters of the rivers of the internal basins, which were very scarce for a long time. If just a year ago, in March 2024, water in the reservoirs reached a minimum of 14%, the rest of the year was already more reasonable in terms of rains and in many places the average values ​​were reached. And now with the latest rains the reservoirs have accumulated quite a lot of reserves and have made a leap we did not see since 2021.

With the data of the reservoirs in the hand, which already exceed 50%, technically and almost all of Catalonia we would be out of what is considered as hydrological drought.

The drought in Catalonia, which has lasted three years and something else, has ended. In my opinion, I end it. We have a very striking increase in reservoir water, which also will continue, because the dynamics is rain and there is a considerable amount of snow stored.

For me the drought has five facets. As for rainfall, the average rainfall values ​​are being normalized. Hydrologically, the reservoir water is important. As for ecosystems, from 2021 to March 2024 the forests suffered a lot, but we are no longer under those conditions. On the agrarian or edaphic drought, now the soil has the seasoning and moisture that corresponds to it at the time of the year. And finally, socioeconomic drought: if there were restrictions, they would have to lift them. But said that, we must add that the danger of nature called drought will continue to present. It is consubstantial to the Mediterranean climate and with climate change the phenomenon will be more frequent and more intense

Of the drought that Catalonia leaves behind there are no precedents.

The years 1822, 1823 and 1824 had a similar character in the shortage of rain. Going back two centuries to find an equal case makes it exceptional. But I insist that the phenomenon of drought is there and it is convenient not to forget it.

A period of constant rainfall like the one we are living in Catalonia is something unusual? The last time the reservoirs were filled was in 2020 with the Glòria storm.

Gloria was an extraordinary storm. It watered in three or four days the entire territory in a copious way. The amounts were huge. In this case they have been repeated days. Is it probable or unlikely? From time to time these anomalies are given, now in the form of depressions and storms one after another entering from the Atlantic. It has rained a lot in Western Andalusia, in the west of the Peninsula, in part of Castile … This occasionally occurs, just as we sometimes have anomalies of another sign, such as anticyclonic. It is not very frequent, but it occurs from time to time, it is not extraordinary either.

And how is this spring and summer presented in terms of rainfall?

For this we look at the seasonal predictions, which are for the next three months in terms of temperature and rain. But they have a high degree of uncertainty. For April and May it is seen that the temperature will be higher than normal, but on the rain they do not say much. Nothing special. Some say that April can be more rainy: hopefully, but it has a high degree of uncertainty.

The danger of nature called drought will remain present. It is consubstantial to the Mediterranean climate and with climate change the phenomenon will be more frequent and more intense

Let’s talk about future droughts in a territory like Catalan. Will we suffer more droughts and more intense with climate emergency?

In the Mediterranean, where we can insert almost all of Spain, all climatic models announce that we cannot expect more rains than the current ones. Therefore, we must be very careful with the management of water resources. Because even if it rains the same, as the temperature will continue to rise, there will be less water resources on the ground, because there will be more evaporation.

You usually say that climatic models with global warming are not very clear about the evolution of rains.

What is no doubt with climate change is that the temperature will continue to increase. On the rain in the Mediterranean, it is possible that I tend to diminish. But even if it remains now, the result is that there will be less available water resource, because a warmer surface is more evaporating.

Does the current historical drought do you have learned that we have learned something as a society?

Yes, I already believe it. When humanity is subjected to important and lasting risks there is a mark, although human memory can be short. The previous great drought, that of 2008, left a reduction in water consumption in Barcelona. The technicians who manage water in Catalonia are good and capable, although those who make decisions are politicians and there we could be more critical.

What do you think should be improved specifically water management during the shortage of the last three years?

From the outset, you have to work for drought in the moments of rainfall. Now that we have a good time, what must be done in the first place is to avoid and repair the losses of the water distribution networks. In many municipalities, very considerable percentages are still lost. This must be reduced to a minimum. In the case of Catalonia, there is a plan with a horizon for the next decade to build a new desalination plant, to take better advantage of aquifers, to purify the water of the Besòs river … If this plan is applied, we will be less dependent on the water of the rain and the reservoirs.

You have to work for drought in the moments of rainfall. Now that we have a good time, what must be done in the first place is to avoid and repair the losses of the water distribution networks

Some entities question that we are able to continue with population increases and especially economic activity than more water, when in the future what we will have will be more periods of shortage.

We can visualize it in the economic sector of tourism, with fundamental importance in Spain. We received 90 million visitors last year, twice our population, and tourism demand water. The water problem has an incidence in all economic sectors, but if we continue to increase the number of tourists in an excessive way, the territory, including water, will be insufficient to meet demand. This forces to plan the territory including water and energy planning. Water, energy and territory go hand in hand, they are indissoluble. The water problem has to do with which country we think for the future.