The former US ambassador to NATO and Obama’s advisor: “We have entered a new era of perennial tension”
FROM THE ENCOUNTER IN WASHINGTON. Ivo Daalder, US representative to NATO during the Obama administration, is direct: “That Putin has recognized two small republics in Eastern Ukraine makes no big difference compared to his real goal: to have a subordinate government in Kiev”.
Why do you consider it a marginal objective to get your hands on the Donbass?
“The Kremlin wants to re-establish the zones of influence and above all it wants to break NATO by returning to a European security order of the 90s, the one before the enlargement to the East. Help”.
Will he reach the primary goal by force, invading Ukraine?
“What intelligence tells us is that we are on the verge of the biggest confrontation in Eastern Europe since the Second World War.”
Despite differences, Europe and the US are aligned on sanctions. A first package was activated. Do you think they are sufficient as a deterrence?
“To judge whether they work, we need to see what happens: if Putin decides not to resort to force, I believe that one of the reasons lies precisely in fear of the massive punitive measures announced by the West. But be careful even if he were to act, deterrence and long-term sanctions would prevail over the Russians ».
In recent weeks we have returned to hear terms related to the Cold War on a daily basis: containment, spheres of influence, deterrence and so on. And then there is Putin’s obsession with the NATO presence near the Russian borders. Has he remained, the head of the Kremlin, a prisoner of an ancient mentality?
«Putin has a strong feeling of revenge and regret that dates back to the 1980s. The dissolution of the USSR and the choices of Gorbachev have always criticized them, seeing in the loss of control of Moscow over the countries of the Iron Curtain and in the disappearance of the empire itself a catastrophic and unnecessary drift. Since he came to power, he has conceived the economic rebirth of the country and the reconstitution of a military force as tools to recover what the past has now taken from Russia ».
Is this why he wants control of Kiev?
“Not only that, there is a second theme that dates back to about ten years ago when Putin decided that Russia’s foreign policy had to guarantee and safeguard the Russophile communities scattered throughout the former empire. And which is a corollary of his desire for revenge. This vision became a strategic document after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. And the same scheme applies to Ukraine. In July, among other things, Putin disclosed a document in which he denies the status of a nation to Ukraine ”.
What does this approach imply?
“These are non-negotiable issues and there is no negotiation with NATO and the West on this. Or rather there may be a dialogue but it is without solution ».
What can the West do then?
«First of all, recognize these peculiarities. For months there has been debate as to whether or not NATO’s open door policy sanctioned in Bucharest in 2008. That is not the point. And that’s not even when Macron says it takes a summit to imagine a new European order without knowing what it could be. For the West this is a secondary issue, but for Putin, bringing Europe’s political and security geography back to 15-20-30 years ago is of primary importance. And he has clear ideas. This is the real difference. It does not mean there will be war in Ukraine, but it does mean that the crisis will not be resolved next week or months to come. We have entered a new era of relationships to be deciphered and of perennial tension ».
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