The Trump effect on Mercado has lasted a quarter. This week an American investor has squandered any gain achieved at Wall Street after the victory of the Republican, has begun to see serious Red numbers In the year, and A European investor has gotten into double loss digit in 2025 if the weakness of the dollar is added.
The president of the USA, in an interview playing at home, in the Foxowned by the Murdoch family, he could not close the door to the ghost of the recession. He really didn’t say anything clear, but ambiguity added to the swing of tariffs that he wears every day are the wick that needed a fire that was seen coming.
For months we talked about the US market had entered into a bubble territory, which is to pay 20% more expensive the benefit that is historically paid by companies. Excess that, despite the correction that the market has lived, has not been corrected. A cousin is still paid on its benefits with respect to the historical averageand only the bubble territory has left, which does not usually have much prolongation in the calendar. Wall Street only quotes 10% of the time in bubble period and only 10% bargain, the latter understood as a discount of 20% compared to historical benefit multipliers.
The bubbles in the bag do not explode, the bubbles deflate, and are an opportunity. The excess has caused that we have entered a correction market, with a fall greater than 10% from the maximums of the S&P. And if the worst technical scene takes the index to the minimum of August, the fall would approach 20%. To deepen that percentage we would already talk about a bearish market. But this is not an approach that we have on the route plan. Trump’s unregistered recession does not appear in the forecast of benefits of companies, and if the correction were a bearish market, we would be contributed with a clear discount on the historical benefits of the companies.
The essence of the bags are expectations and the position of investors is to relocate their strategy based on them. Since the end of last year he had been writing that a classic portfolio, 60% bag/40% fixed income, had to balance its position for the complacency towards the risks. Well change the message.
To the extent that the depth of the falls continue, it will be time to increase the stock market taking care of the artillery. At the moment you have to shoot savings because it remains a lot of nervousness to launch the 21 CANONAZOS. The 21st save was forced by the strengths to respond to the recognized British greeting of 7 savings from the ships because the sodium nitrate of the gunpowder is less dangerous on land.
The stock market shots will triple when we approach a bearish market.
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