“Shiite Houthis are evil and pro-Iranian.” The analysis
In recent weeks there have been different cargo ships heading towards Israelor owned by companies attributable to Israeli citizens, which were attacked or hit by Houthi forces near the narrow stretch of ocean that passes through Djibouti. Obviously the scenario before us risks degenerating into a slowdown in naval trade in the Strait of Djibouti, a fundamental passage to and from the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean Region. However, what is not said is that the Houthis were not born yesterday but are a phenomenon rooted in the 15 years of forgotten Yemeni civil war, where Houthi attacks alternate with violent repression and massacres by the (invading?) Saudi army. Let's take stock to understand what's at stake.
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This is who the Houthis are
In July 2014 it Yemen it was made up of a population of Sunni religion (about 64%) and Shiite religion (about 35%). The government was pro-Sunni and pro-American. Very often, Middle Eastern Sunni governments are pro-American: from the Saudi absolute monarchy onwards. The Shiite populations refer, as big brother, to Iran which is a Shiite republic (the most important in terms of population in the world). The Yemeni population then lived under a “family” government: the political leader of the time had distributed his family in all key roles. The leadership of the time, being pro-American, was also open to promoting liberal reforms suggested by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF had linked the block of financial aid to the liberalization of different sectors of the economy and, vitally, to the reduction of subsidies for the poorest sections of the population. On July 30, the Yemeni government announces the removal of fuel subsidies for internal combustion vehicles. In such a poor nation it is a tsunami. In August 2014 the Houthis promote mass protests. The government does not take this well, firmly (and violently) opposing the protests, a manifestation of democracy. The Houthis take control of the capital Sanaa and a national unity government is created in September 2014. Hadi, the deposed Sunni leader asked for help from the “big Sunni brother” of the area, Saudi Arabia. The latter does not miss the opportunity to flex its muscles in a conflict perceived as easy, to which is added the opportunity to get its hands on the oil in the area. Since then the civil war has continued, amidst the complete indifference of the Western press which avoids talking about an uncomfortable topic: the USA is pro Saudi Arabia and the absolute monarchy has recently become particularly active in public relations, managing to be defined by its Italian lobbyist and politicians Matteo Renzi “the Middle Eastern renaissance”.
The Chinese peace and the Houthis
In the nation today yes face the Houthi militias financed by Iran and the Sunni militias by Saudi Arabia. In fact, the civil war in Yemen has turned into a proxy war (not dissimilar to Ukraine) between Iran and Saudi Arabia: the two elephants of the area, which have been competing on different scenarios for decades.
In recent years, however, something has changed. Starting from 2022-23, China, a large buyer of fossil energy, has promoted a truce between the two Islamic actors. Although the term peace is an exaggeration, it is a fact that China, with the simple interest of having access to the oil and gas produced in the area, has promoted this rapprochement to reduce the costs of the raw materials it imports.
This choice of the dragon has repercussions on regional balances. There are three fronts of proxy wars Saudi Vs Iran: Yemen, Syria and Iraq. All these three areas also see the presence of the US supporting the Saudis or any other faction that opposes the Iranians.
With the Chinese peace, the militias supported by Iran (Hezbollah, Houthis and the regular Iraqi and Syrian governments) began to decrease hostilities against the pro-Saudi militias. It is indicative of this truce that, at present, there have been few protests from the Gulf countries (pro-American Sunnis) towards the Houthi operations against ships headed towards Israel. Add to this the fact that for a year now, since China promoted this Iran Saudi peace, the Houthis and the Saudis have been trying to find a peace agreement.
The anti-piracy coalition
The USA has promoted a large anti-piracy coalition, along the lines of the previous project, in the same area, against Somali pirates. The area of Djibouti, which overlooks the body of water that divides Yemen and Africa, is already heavily garrisoned by numerous armies, including us Italians. The microscopic African state is also home to a large American base which has recently become next door to an equivalent Chinese base. Among other things, the Chinese also rebuilt the commercial port, Doraleh, making it one of the cornerstones of commercial policy in the Chinese Indian Ocean.
The project of the new anti-piracy coalition, led by the Americans, does not appear to be very successful at the moment. The US deployed two aircraft carriers and related units in the area, successfully shooting down several air carriers launched by the Houthis. However, Middle Eastern countries shy away and stay away from this alliance. Western European nations accepted with reservations, fearful of antagonizing the Houthis who, with their strategic position, could damage ships flying the flag of European nations.
Economic wars, the revolution
One last aspect that should be considered in this asymmetric conflict it's the cheap one. The damage that the Houthis are causing to shipping companies is currently modest, but it can be amplified by Western financial speculation (a bit like what happened in 2022 with gas and the Ukrainian crisis, where there was speculation by Western brokers and financial reality ).
However, the real game changer in this conflict is the costs of aggression versus defense. Maritime piracy is already in itself a low-cost phenomenon: a few fast boats, light machine guns like the Ak47 and some old RPGs from the Soviet era. The technological evolution of Houthi attacks, with missiles and drones, although more modern, remains extremely economical and, therefore, accessible to irregular armies such as the Yemeni one.
The Houthi drones that were shot down by American warships cost about $2,000 to assemble compared to the approximately $2 million value of American interceptor missiles. Add to this that the Houthi drone and missile launch sites are mobile and easily camouflaged: an American tactical bombing would be difficult and economically expensive. It is estimated that the US has shot down just under 50 Houthi drones and missiles in the last 2 months, to prevent damage to civilian ships. Approximately we are talking about around 100 million investment. A figure that the Pentagon can easily absorb but still a significant figure if we consider that it is added to the costs of moving American ships. The scenario of a Pentagon increasingly dedicated to intercepting technological but economic weapons is increasingly becoming a topic of debate within American think tanks. The Houthi case is just the latest example of a growing war trend.
This theme is also associated with advanced tactics, although relatively cheap, with which the Houthis, apparently aided by the Iranians, are intercepting the ships. The Houthis track ships thanks to the Automated Tracking System (AIS). AIS is an automatic system installed in 90% of the world's commercial ships, and reports the name of the vessel, location, position, course and speed. With this data the Houthis are able to understand which flag this vessel flies and its route (to or from Israel, this being the target of the Yemenis. The system is mandatory according to the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea or SOLAS.
It is unclear how the will be finished Houthi danger in the area. The recent attack on a cargo ship off the Indian coast confirms the Houthis' ability to hit targets at long distances, making it necessary for the American-led anti-piracy coalition to deploy numerous ships and detection systems throughout the Indian Ocean, an area where most of the world's commercial naval traffic passes (part of which then enters the Red Sea bound for Europe via Suez). With the current “neutrality” of Middle Eastern countries, there is a risk that Houthi activities will worsen and, until the elections of the next American president, these operations will continue to flourish. After all, Isis also saw its moment of greatest fervor during the handover from Obama to the new president (2016).
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