Egypt tries to mediate, Hamas says no to dialogue and rejects any possibility of taking a step backwards. Israel, in the words of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reiterates its hard line to achieve peace, today still far from the Gaza Strip. Military operations by the Israeli Armed Forces (IDF) continue, with at least 70 deaths in the raid on the Al-Maghazi refugee camp and over 130 overall deaths in the enclave in the last 24 hours.
Egypt's plan
Iran threatens Israel after the killing of a senior Pasdaran figure in a raid in Syria. Hezbollah joins the chorus by stating that “the limits have been exceeded”. In a context of constant high tension, dialogue does not seem to be able to take off. Egypt tries to play the role of mediator and draws up a 3-step plan to try to defuse the crisis.
Cairo is starting by suspending fighting for at least two weeks in exchange for the release of 40 hostages – women, minors and elderly men, especially sick ones – still prisoners in Gaza. In exchange, Israel would release 120 Palestinian security detainees. The second phase would see an Egyptian-sponsored “Palestinian national dialogue” aimed at ending the division between Palestinian factions – mainly the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority and Hamas – and leading to the formation of a caretaker government in the West Bank and Gaza ahead of Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections.
The third phase would include a comprehensive ceasefire, the release of remaining Israeli hostages, including soldiers, in exchange for a to-be-determined number of Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons affiliated with Hamas and Islamic Jihad – including those arrested after October 7 and some convicted of serious terrorist crimes.
Hamas: “No surrender”
The Egyptian plan would have been rejected by Hamas. The no is implicit if you read the first public message that Yahya Sinwar, leader of the organization, spread after the attacks of October 7th: no surrender. Hamas is facing a “fierce, violent and unprecedented battle” against Israel, it will not surrender and will not submit to the “conditions of occupation”.
Beyond the position expressed in a peremptory manner, Sinwar peppers the discussion with data that does not seem to have any basis. The al-Qassam Brigades, he says, attacked at least 5,000 Israeli soldiers, killing a third of them. These numbers find no confirmation, not even remotely, in the official bulletins released by the IDF: Israel has disclosed the names of 156 fallen since the start of the operations. The Hamas leader in Gaza instead claims that the al-Qassam Brigades have “crushed” the Israeli troops and are decimating them.
Netanyahu and the “preconditions”
No opening from Hamas and, shortly thereafter, no change of line from Netanyahu. The prime minister illustrates to the Wall Street Journal the “preconditions” for peace in the Strip. However, it is difficult to take the matter into consideration if we do not start from a crushing military victory.
Netanyahu indicates the steps for the solution to the crisis: “Destroy Hamas, demilitarize Gaza, deradicalize the entire Palestinian society”. The prime minister emphasizes that, at the initial level, the military capabilities” of Hamas “must be dismantled and its political role in Gaza must be exhausted.” Secondly, Israel must ensure that Gaza “is no longer used as a base for launching attacks “. Control of the territory must prevent the entry of weapons into Gaza and at the same time we must rebuild a society which, according to Netanyahu, cannot be led by the Palestinian Authority. Netanyahu indicates the “successful deradicalization” of society as a model to follow “in Germany and Japan after the Allied victory in World War II” and states that “today both nations are great allies of the United States and promote peace, stability and prosperity in Europe and Asia”. Only in this way, he states, “Gaza can be rebuilt” in a context of peace.
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