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China has launched large-scale military maneuvers off Taiwan and is threatening “shattered skulls”: What this verbal escalation means for peace in the Taiwan Strait.
It is an escalation that was announced. On Monday, Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, a former doctor whom China sees as a “dangerous separatist,” was sworn in. As soon as he took office, Beijing heaped insults on the new president. Foreign Minister Wang Yi accused Lai of endangering peace in the region, a commentary in the party newspaper People’s Daily described Lai as a “traitor”. And Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said: “The independence forces will end up with their skulls smashed and covered in blood.”
However, Beijing did not stop at mere rhetoric; on Thursday morning, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army began large-scale military maneuvers near Taiwan. The army, navy, air force and missile forces, among other things, want to train attacks on key targets until Friday. This is undoubtedly an escalation. But there is much to suggest that this saber rattling will continue.
China’s threatening gestures towards Taiwan are “above all symbolic politics and in a certain way already a kind of ritual,” said sinologist and Taiwan expert Gunter Schubert in a recent interview with IPPEN.MEDIA. In fact, Beijing has been sending fighter jets and warships almost daily for years near the island, which China considers part of its own territory. The Chinese government wants to stop the Taiwanese government from formally declaring the country independent from Beijing. She also wants to intimidate and wear down the people of Taiwan – in the hope that they might one day agree to annexation of their country to the People’s Republic.
China threatens to annex Taiwan by force
However, because most Taiwanese want to maintain the status quo, this is unlikely to happen in the near future. At least not as long as the Communist Party rules China. Taiwan is a thriving democracy, and almost no one there wants to fall under Beijing’s thumb. Beijing knows this and is therefore threatening military force. “We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and utmost effort,” said China’s state and party leader Xi Jinping two years ago at the last Communist Party Congress. “But we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option to take any action necessary.”
However, it is unlikely that China will soon get serious and actually attack Taiwan. Beijing does want to make its People’s Liberation Army a world-class army by 2027 – the 100th anniversary of its founding. But that does not mean that Xi will then give the order to attack Taiwan. “Nobody knows when and if China actually wants to intervene militarily – perhaps the Chinese government itself does not know,” says Taiwan expert Schubert. Other experts also doubt that Beijing has any ready-made attack plans in the drawer.
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Tens of thousands dead: think tank simulates Chinese attack on Taiwan
Last year, the US think tank CSIS played through several possible Chinese attack scenarios. The result: China would most likely lose a “conventional” attack on Taiwan – assuming the US and Japan intervene in the conflict on Taiwan’s side. This is what most experts currently assume. However, the allies’ victory would come at a high price: “The United States and its allies would lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and tens of thousands of military personnel. Taiwan’s economy would be devastated,” the CSIS analysts expect. China would also have to cope with high losses.
It is clear that foreign secret services would probably identify preparations for an invasion in good time – such as troop redeployments, the construction of makeshift hospitals or blood donation campaigns. This was also the case before Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
However, experts are also discussing other possible scenarios than a “conventional” attack. China could, for example, try to isolate Taiwan from the outside world through a maritime blockade. Another option would be a so-called salami strategy, in which China first attacks one or more of the smaller islands that belong to Taiwan and are close to the Chinese mainland. The calculation behind this is that if China first attacks Kinmen, for example, it would not have to worry about interference from the USA or Japan – the island would not be worth risking a global war. This could encourage China to attack other islands and ultimately conquer the main island of Taiwan.
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