While the opposition and criticism become disoriented in predictable and emotional analytical approaches, the President Lopez Obrador He continues to leave little stones to identify the path of his presidential succession: last Sunday’s rally was the clearest of all, due to the political time, the succession context, the message for 2024 and the profile of the two women speakers.
Of the six presidential candidates, five have understood the rules of the game and they are not disoriented with efforts to impose their successor figure in the surveys which will be decisive. The method used for the surveys was very clear: public opinion polls do not reflect a foreshadowing of the strengths of the pre-candidatesbut they provide the presidentin the succession kitchen, moods of society and profiling of loyalties.
The only one who considers that the surveys will be the decision vehicle is the Former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard Casaubón and start building your own polls to sell the idea that you are on top of Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo or that he is displacing her in the presidential interest.
ANDl rally on Saturday, July 1 to celebrate the 2018 victory –another non-subliminal message from National Palace— can be read as the first formal approach to the survey trend to decide the candidate Brunettebut not based on who is the nicest and funniest, but who represents the strategic interests of the 4T of Lopez Obrador. And while the five candidates are revealing themselves to build alliances between the Lopez Obradoristas intermediate cadres, ebrard does not miss an opportunity to show that the 4T will be reorganized based on his personal priorities, exactly the same as Manuel Camacho Solís behaved the three months prior to the president’s decision Carlos Salinas de Gortari in favor of Luis Donaldo Colosio Murrieta.
ebrard He has experience in six-year cycles, since he had to participate in the first circle of power in three successions: that of Miguel de la Madrid Hurtadothat of Gortari Salt Flats and the fight Colosio-Camacho and has knowledge of succession behaviors in long-term projects. With a message that left him more negative than positive, ebrard the creation of the 4T Secretariat –a kind of Sedesol with Salinas-Colosio– and then with the early appointment of the son of the President Lopez Obradoremulating De la Madrid who, as the columnist Francisco Rodríguez recalled in Political Index, swore allegiance to the son of President López Portillo and his spoiled Rosa Luz Alegría, although he later persecuted him until isolation.
The problem with surveys is that they build trends when they are part of strategic decisions to induce social sympathy and the Republic President spent five years chiseling the figure of brown sheinbaum based on a political project, while ebrard He is rotating his pre-campaign based on his personal figure.
He rally of Saturday 1st of July must be read strategically: the priorities of the President Lopez Obrador in the candidacy of his successor. None of the previous outgoing presidents of the Republic at the juncture of his succession thought about the welfare of the Republicnot even Lázaro Cárdenas, because the fundamental factors in any succession are the stability of the ruling group, avoiding fractures or leaks of candidates to other parties and the continuity of their political-personal approach to the country.
Like Camacho in 1993-1994, ebrard has no other way to agree before the result of the surveys a strategic alliance with the pre-candidate who appears at the head of the polls and not make the mistake of his mentor of reaching an agreement after the disclosure with Colosium and the warnings of Salinas that it was a very serious political error. ebrard You must understand that the reading of his behavior now and after the results of the polls for the candidacy is being read from the 1993-1994 crisis and Camacho’s departure from the political paradise of power.
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