Iran threatens countermeasures: No relief from sanctions

IIn the nuclear dispute, Iran threatened on Friday with “countermeasures” because European states want to maintain certain sanctions that are due to expire in October according to UN decisions. The E3 (Great Britain, Germany, France) justified this on Thursday by saying that Iran is massively violating the 2015 agreement (JCPOA), which subjects Iran’s nuclear program to strict limits.

Iran is now enriching uranium to a point close to weapons-grade levels, although the pace of production has been slowed in recent months. Tehran justifies this by saying that the USA was the first to withdraw from the JCPOA in 2018 and unilaterally imposed a dense network of sanctions. Negotiations in Vienna about a return to the agreement, in which Russia and China were also involved, have been on hold since last spring.

According to the JCPOA, the last sanctions decided by the UN Security Council over Iran’s nuclear program are due to expire on October 18th. They now want to continue using the E3. However, this is no longer about far-reaching economic sanctions, but primarily about those that relate to components for ballistic missiles. The USA took a similar step in July. The E3 foreign ministries said Iran had twice turned down the opportunity to return to the JCPOA. From Iran’s perspective, an agreement failed because the USA could not provide a watertight guarantee that it would not withdraw unilaterally again. Especially since declared JCPOA opponent Donald Trump wants to run again in the upcoming presidential election.

Prisoner exchange movement

However, the E3 pointed out that Iran had continued to expand its nuclear program “beyond the limitations provided for in the JCPOA and without credible civilian justification.” What is of concern is that enriched uranium stocks are more than eighteen times the amount permitted under the JCPOA and are being enriched to up to 60 percent instead of up to 3.67 percent. At the beginning of this year, particles were even found that were enriched up to 84 percent, which is almost the limit for weapons suitability. In addition, the country is violating its transparency obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which are independent of the JCPOA.

The attempt to increase pressure in the nuclear dispute will be made shortly before the start of the UN General Assembly next week. At the same time, talks are also taking place between Western states and Iran. It is attributed to negotiations between the USA and Iran that enrichment was recently reduced to 60 percent.

There is also movement when it comes to prisoner release. Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amirabdollahian declared on Thursday evening that five prisoners would be exchanged with the USA. The agreement brokered by Qatar over months of negotiations also stipulates that the USA will release Iranian assets in South Korea worth six billion dollars. Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also spoke to Amirabdollahian on the phone on Wednesday. This was the first conversation between the two since they met at the Munich Security Conference in spring 2022.

Iran speaks of “bad intention”

The Foreign Office later announced that the focus had been on “German consular cases”. Several German dual nationals are in Iranian prisons, including Jamshid Sharmahd, sentenced to death. But the nuclear program also remains an issue. “We remain committed to a diplomatic solution,” the E3 foreign ministries said.

It is rumored that there will be talks with the Iranian negotiator on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly next week in New York. But senior diplomats are cautious about the chances of a breakthrough. The expectation from Berlin is that Iran will have to do more to achieve this.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry, in turn, described maintaining the sanctions as an “illegal, provocative act” that was taken with “bad intentions.” The European Union and the E3 states would thereby be violating their “obligations under the JCPOA”. The move will “have a negative impact on the cooperation process,” the statement continued. It was “unacceptable” that the EU justified the move on the basis of Iranian measures taken in response to the United States’ withdrawal from the JCPOA.