In the first week of the year, a series of events in the Middle East raises fears that violence in the region will extend beyond the conflict between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas, which began in October after the attacks on Israeli territory.
The fear of escalation has existed since the first days of the war, due to actions parallel to the main stage, such as attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels and specific clashes between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah.
However, the developments of the last few days could open the door for increased tensions, the more incisive entry of certain actors and even conflicts parallel to Israel x Hamas.
“The odds of a regional war in the Middle East have risen from 15% to 30%,” retired Admiral James Stavridis, a former NATO commander, told the New York Times. “Still relatively low, but higher than before, and certainly uncomfortably high.”
Check out the main sources of tension at the moment:
Will
On Wednesday (3), an attack in Kerman, Iran, killed 89 people and injured almost 300 others during a tribute to Qassem Soleimani, former commander of the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard unit killed by a United States drone in 2020.
The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack the following day, which could lead to a strong Iranian response to the terrorist group and a parallel conflict in the Middle East. As of this Friday (5), 11 suspects involved in the attack had been arrested by Iranian authorities.
At the same time, Tehran must maintain or even increase the emphasis on destabilization actions in other Middle Eastern countries through the groups it supports: Hamas, Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis.
“An increasingly effective regional security architecture, of the kind the United States and Saudi Arabia are trying to build, is a nightmare for Iran, which, like a bully on the playground, wants to keep all the other children divided and distracted.” , said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the American think tank Center for Military and Political Power, in an interview with the Politico website.
Lebanon
A bombing hit Hamas offices on the outskirts of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, on Tuesday (2) and at least one vehicle that was nearby, killing seven people.
Among them were the number two of Hamas's political wing, Saleh al Arouri, and two other members of the terrorist group.
In addition to a possible escalation by Hamas itself, there is fear of a more incisive entry by Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, in the war against Israel, even though the Jewish State has not confirmed responsibility for the attack in Beirut.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib told the BBC that he had asked Hezbollah not to retaliate.
“We are very worried, we Lebanese do not want to be dragged [para a guerra]not even Hezbollah wants to be drawn into a regional war,” he stated.
Houthis
In “solidarity with the Palestinian cause”, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, also supported by Iran, have carried out attacks on Israel and have carried out actions in the Red Sea.
A statement from the United States, endorsed by the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Italy, Japan, Singapore and the Netherlands, called for an immediate halt to these attacks and indicated that the patience of the West and allies with the Houthis, despite the fear of re-igniting the war in Yemen, is short-lived.
“The Houthis will bear the consequences if they continue to threaten lives, the global economy and the free flow of trade in the region’s critical waterways,” they pointed out.
Houthi rebels, in turn, accused the newly formed US-led naval alliance of posing a “serious threat” to shipping in the Red Sea.
“The formation of a US alliance to protect Israeli ships represents a serious threat to the security of international shipping in the Red Sea, and those involved must bear the consequences of the dangerous and irresponsible increase in tension,” the US political office said in a statement. group.
Iraq
An attack this week on the headquarters of one of the militias of the Popular Multitude, a pro-Iran group, in eastern Baghdad, caused the death of three fighters, including that of an important commander.
The Iraqi Army blamed the US-led coalition for the attack and the Iraqi Foreign Ministry stated that this “aggression” against the group of militias, mostly pro-Iranian and in fact integrated into the Iraqi Armed Forces, represents “an escalation dangerous”.
The ministry claimed on Thursday (4) that the country has the right to take “measures to dissuade anyone who tries to harm its territory or security”.
The United States later assumed responsibility for the action, claiming “self-defense” due to militia attacks on its bases in the region, which were motivated by American support for Israel.
This Friday, the Prime Minister of Iraq, Mohammed Shia al Sudani, announced the formation of a bilateral committee to plan the withdrawal of forces from the international coalition led by the United States. (With EFE Agency)
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