06/02/2024 – 8:54
The Focus report median for 2024 inflation remained stable, after three weeks of decline. According to the document released this Tuesday by the Central Bank, the market continued to estimate that the IPCA will increase 3.81% this year, the same rate as the previous edition. A month ago, the projection was 3.90%.
For 2025, which is also the focus of monetary policy, now to a greater extent than 2024, the projection remained at 3.50%, for the 28th week in a row.
Considering the 55 estimates updated in the last five business days, the median for 2024 went from 3.80% to 3.76%. For 2025, the projection remained at 3.50%, considering 55 updates in the period.
For 2026, the median remained at 3.50% for the 31st consecutive week – following the only partial re-anchoring highlighted by the BC after maintaining the inflation target at 3% for this and the coming years. In the longer horizon, 2027, the estimate remained at 3.50%, as it has been for 31 weeks.
The Focus Market Report's estimates continue to be above the center of the inflation target of 3%. The 2023 IPCA was 4.62%, below the target ceiling (4.75%, compared to a center of 3.25% last year), preventing the objective to be pursued by the BC from being exceeded for the third consecutive year .
Last week, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) released a projection of 3.5% for the 2024 IPCA, the same as the previous meeting in December. For 2025, it also remained at 3.2%. The board reduced the Selic for the fifth consecutive time by 0.50 percentage points, to 11.25% per year.
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