Weather experts dare to take a look at the weather for the summer of 2023. The first trend forecasts not only point to record temperatures.
Kassel – That Weather does what it wants and gives us one mild February and frosty temperatures at the beginning of spring. In addition, there is a lot of sunshine at the beginning of March, so you can start thinking about summer. Experts are already daring to make an initial forecast. Follow the mild winter a hot summer?
The start of 2023 was already warmer than average, sometimes even 6 to 10 degrees above average. Weather expert Andreas Becker speaks in the Interview with ZDF even all-time records. “The fact is that with last year we have actually already encountered a year that the climate models will only perceive as normal from 2050 onwards.”
Weather in Germany: This is what the last summers looked like
After more than three weeks in January, the temperature was experts from wetter.de according to 4.9 degrees above the mean. The forecast predicts a heat surplus of +4.4 degrees. According to experts, typical April weather is to be expected in March as well.
2022 | +2.28 degrees |
2018 | +2.25 degrees |
2020 | +2.23 degrees |
2014 | +2.13 degrees |
2019 | +2.08 degrees |
Source: wetter.de |
Record warm weather in summer? First trends of the US weather service NOAA
Graduate meteorologist Dominik Jung von weather.net has the first trends of the US weather service NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) for the Summer viewed in 2023. Accordingly, the period from June to August 2023 could be around 1 to 2 degrees warmer. A comparison is made here with the new climate mean for the years 1991 to 2020.
For the first months of 2023, the forecast by the US weather service NOAA was relatively accurate. If the summer trend forecast is correct, it could be a “record warm summer” this year, maybe even a “severe hot summer”, according to Jung.
Hot summer in Germany: Extreme weather with drought threatens
With the heat comes the drought. According to experts, too little rainfall has already caused a large deficit in recent years. “If the weather in spring is similar to 2022, the drought will become much worse,” warns the agricultural meteorologist at the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences in Vienna, Josef Eitzinger German Press Agency (dpa).
According to experts, the extremely low snow cover in the Alps and the lack of rain in February indicate the threat of massive drought. In France, Switzerland, Italy and parts of Austria there is currently much less snow than usual for many years, said weather forecaster Klaus Haslinger Geosphere Austria.
That too El Niño weather phenomenon could set global record temperatures in summer 2023 care for. “All models show a large El Niño phase for the late spring and summer of 2023,” predicted German climatologist Dr. Karsten Brandt from donnerwetter.de.
Weather: Hot summer in Germany is approaching – forecasts associated with uncertainties
However, all this does not necessarily mean that we are facing a summer with long periods of heat and temperatures of over 40 degrees. If it stays relatively warm during the day and at night in summer, the bottom line is that the month is too warm.
It remains to be seen whether Germany and Europe will face the warmest summer since weather records began in 2023. According to weather expert Jung, the forecasts are always associated with uncertainties. After all, the long-term weather models are seasonal trends and by no means a classic weather forecast.
Also the 100 year calendar prophesied heat for the summer of 2023. The popular permanent weather report from the 17th century predicts a Martian year for 2023 – and “the Martian year has the hottest summers ever,” says the 100-year calendar. (hg)
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