From Egypt to Morocco, many countries depend on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. The FAO alarm: malnutrition risks affecting 103 million people
The attention on Ukraine is very high, but beware of losing sight of what may be the implications that this war – which has now started three weeks ago – can have far from the European borders. According to the FAO, 50 countries, including many of the least developed countries, depend on Russia and Ukraine for 30% or more of their grain supplies, making them particularly vulnerable. With the ongoing conflict, the global number of undernourished people could increase from 8 to 103 million in 2022/23. The most pronounced increases would be seen in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by sub-Saharan Africa, the Near East and North Africa.
Inflation is in fact knocking on Africa’s door again, with the prices of most basic food products skyrocketing, putting consumers, individuals, governments and established powers under pressure. It is therefore not surprising to hear the voice of the IMF in recent days through its CEO Kristalina Georgieva who used clear words with African leaders: “In this difficult moment, the Fund is ready to help African countries to face the repercussions of the war and planning and implementing reforms through its political advice, capacity building and loans. ‘ Well, we can only hope so, but in the meantime, starting from North Africa, the situation is by no means reassuring, even for the protests that continue to increase in the various countries, rekindling a memory that is not very distant, that of the Arab springs. Do you remember their slogan from the square in Cairo? “Bread, freedom, social justice”. The various manifestations for the high prices are a wake-up call. The war in Ukraine risks turning into a boomerang for several African countries and there are many analyzes and studies to confirm this. From Cairo they are far from serene. The country is holding up by importing almost half of its annual consumption of wheat, which in figures translates into 20 million tons mainly addressed to the production of bread and above all to the famous subsidized pancake, El Aysh (which not surprisingly means life) weighing of 90 grams which is sold at the price of one twentieth of its real cost and to which almost three quarters of one hundred million Egyptians are entitled. For the moment, the reserves are sufficient for four months of consumption, they say. But then it will be necessary to quickly find replacements for Russia and Ukraine, which to date, despite the calls for tenders, have not found each other.
Meanwhile, the price of wheat continues to rise, while the Russian-Ukrainian conflict does not stop upsetting the balance of other more stable countries such as Morocco, as the kingdom is an exporter of both energy and food. According to the Think tank Policy Center, Morocco is the largest African economy to experience a significant negative shock after this war. The kingdom is also a major importer of wheat. The cost of imported cereals as a percentage of GDP stood at 1.4% in 2019, but due to an expected low harvest in 2022, imports could double. This means that the combined effect of rising oil and grain prices, if sustained, could cost Morocco between 1% and 2% of national income this year.
Tunisian President Kais Saïed is raising his voice by promising that he will make “a ferocious war within the framework of the law against speculators and criminals” but it will certainly not be enough, because the country is getting worse and worse, not only because it is in the throes of a serious political and financial crisis but it is also starting to face a shortage of basic food products, such as semolina, sugar, rice and flour, on which it depends a lot abroad along with half of its wheat needs, which came mainly from Ukraine. In Algeria, several bells ring instead. If the end of commodity subsidies had caused severe food shortages at the beginning of the year, Algiers now hopes to finance the purchase of cereals with the production of gas, as the demand for exports has increased. Of course, not all countries on the African continent suffer the consequences of the war in the same way because European countries are trying to turn to other suppliers to cope with the soaring prices of hydrocarbons from Russia. In Africa, Algeria, Libya and Nigeria – which are the main producers of hydrocarbons – could see their revenues grow, but the point is that the problems facing the continent will certainly not be solved by a step forward of these three countries, and it is for this reason that attention on Africa must be kept constant especially on the northern part that borders our Mediterranean, and where positive or negative changes always spill over into our lives as well.
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