09/01/2024 – 21:56
The high production of Petrobras and the expansion of biofuel consumption led Brazil to import less gasoline and diesel in 2023. The company's refineries operate almost at maximum capacity, experts pointed out this Tuesday, 8.
Diesel A (pure) imports fell 8.8% last year, compared to the record recorded in the previous year, to 14.67 billion liters – despite an accelerated expansion of consumption at the country's service stations –, due to an increase in national production and a greater mixture of biodiesel in the fossil fuel sold at the pumps.
External purchases of gasoline fell 8.2% in the same period, to 4.16 billion liters in 2023, due to a drop in competitiveness compared to hydrated ethanol, its main competitor at the pumps, in addition to the advance of Petrobras.
Even so, diesel imports last year totaled the second highest volume in the historical series, second only to 2022, in a year also marked by the advance of Russian diesel in the country, which took the position of Brazil's main external supplier from the United States. , according to government data.
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Expectations for 2024
For this year, StoneX predicts that diesel imports by Brazil should remain strong, as the country continues to depend on the external market to meet its growing demand and its refineries are already operating close to maximum capacity. Between January and November 2023, around 23.6% of diesel A consumed by the country came from imports. On the other hand, there will be a further increase in the mixture of biodiesel in diesel from 12% to 14%, partially reducing the need.
In the projections, the consumption of diesel B should register an increase of 1.4% in 2024 compared to 2023, totaling 66 billion liters, guaranteed by another year of GDP growth and a production of soybeans and corn that, despite remain below the previous year, they should remain at high levels compared to the historical series.
Gasoline more expensive than on the international market
The drop in oil prices made gasoline sold in Brazil 6% more expensive than on the international market, signaling a possible decline in Brazilian refinery prices if the price of the commodity stabilizes at its current level. The drop in oil can be explained by the price cut announced by Saudi Aramco, indicating lower global demand than expected.
According to the Brazilian Infrastructure Center (Cbie), the cut in the price of gasoline on the domestic market could be R$0.16 per liter, a value similar to that indicated by Abicom (Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers).
The last gasoline adjustment at Petrobras refineries was 81 days ago, when the state-owned company reduced the price of fuel by 4%, or R$0.12 less per liter. Diesel had two reductions made by the state-owned company in December last year, the last being on the 27th, practically in line with the international price.
With information from agencies Reuters and Estadão Conteúdo*
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