The use of force is expressly permitted: China is becoming increasingly aggressive in the South China Sea. But other states are also not sticking to agreements.
- There are repeated clashes between China and its neighbors in the South China Sea.
- But in an area through which a third of all world trade flows, of all places, there is no generally accepted crisis mechanism.
- The text lies IPPEN.MEDIA as part of a cooperation with China.Table Professional Briefing before – first published him China.Table on January 17, 2023.
Beijing – A recent report by the financial news service Bloomberg caused a stir: China is in the process of developing several unoccupied land areas in the South China Sea. It is a dramatic intensification of China’s strategy in the South China Sea, the report said, citing two unnamed Western diplomats. The new thing about it: It is said to be rock formations that would not have been under Chinese control before. Until now, ports, airstrips and military infrastructure have been built on reefs that Beijing had already occupied. It would indeed be an unprecedented event.
China’s foreign ministry immediately dismissed the report as untrue. Nor can Gregory Poling, head of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) in Washington, confirm the Bloomberg report. The satellite images available to him showed no significant changes on the four reefs in question. On the contrary: “I would even say that in 2022, for the first time in ten years, China has not increased its control in the South China Sea,” says Poling China.Table.
China legislates to authorize the use of force
We are talking about one of the geostrategically most important regions in the world: around a third of all world trade is shipped here, and the area is also rich in raw materials. Whoever is in control here is in an extremely powerful position. Therefore, all riparian states raise competing claims. With its “nine-dash line”, China insists on more than 80 percent of the 3.5 million square kilometer area. The situation is correspondingly tense. According to Poling, China uses law enforcement and militia vessels widely in the South China Sea to harass Southeast Asian civilians and foreign government vessels.
Collin Koh, researcher at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore, also points to a legal aggravation of the situation as a result of the Coast Guard Law passed by Beijing in 2021. “This new law authorizes naval forces to take necessary action against what Beijing may see as undermining its maritime sovereignty and rights in the South China Sea — including the use of force,” Koh said.
Philippines vs. China: ‘Guarantee None of Them Get Home Alive’
Ship formations from different countries meet more and more frequently on the high seas. Probably the most explosive case occurred in 2021, when China sent more than 200 suspected fishing boats with militias on board to the Whitsun reef. They were clearly entering the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone and came perilously close to a Vietnamese-held reef. The tense situation lasted for several months. Escalation seemed inevitable when then-Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said, “If I send my marines to drive out the Chinese fishermen, I guarantee you that none of them will make it home alive.” Fortunately, the incident ended peacefully with the pullout of Chinese ships. So far, the Chinese side has not used force. “But each of these encounters carries the risk of escalation,” warns Koh.
![Chinese ships and a Philippine patrol on 2021 at Whitsun Reef:](https://www.merkur.de/bilder/2023/01/17/92034797/30707162-chinesische-schiffe-und-eine-patrouille-der-philippinen-am-2021-am-whitsun-reef-R6JtqfrR0BG.jpg)
We’re also seeing a growing military gray area — from the Coast Guard to civilian fisheries. Felix Heiduk from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik explains in an interview: “China’s fishing fleets are increasingly operating in conjunction with the coast guard and navy in order to assert territorial claims against the Philippines or Vietnam, for example.” The Chinese coast guard now has very large, armed ships .
Not only China: Vietnam is also expanding reefs
There is also a dangerous new development: While China has recently reduced its expansion activities, other countries are now beginning to massively increase their presence in the South China Sea. Satellite imagery shows that Vietnam has expanded dredging and landfill operations at its outposts in the Spratly Islands in the second half of 2022, creating around 170 hectares of new land. “There are no saints in the South China Sea,” says Koh. Each party has engaged in activities that violate the spirit of the agreed 2002 Declaration of Conduct.
However, China stands out with its actions, on the one hand due to the existing power asymmetry compared to the other neighboring countries. On the other hand, Beijing’s self-confidence is growing. The lack of recognized crisis mechanisms in the South China Sea is particularly dangerous in this context. The biggest obstacle here is the lack of trust between the individual parties. Theoretically, external forces such as the EU or even the UN could be considered as independent mediators. But China in particular rejects this as “external interference”. Rather, Beijing is propagating an “Asian solution” – probably also in the hope of being able to exploit its own supremacy.
This text was published on January 17, 2023 in the China.Table Professional Briefing – as part of a cooperation, it is now also available to the readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.
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