Ecuadorians will vote this Sunday, April 21, to define whether to toughen the laws against drug traffickers and criminals, in a climate of tension due to three crises: diplomatic, hydroelectric and increasing violence. Extradition is at the center of the debate in a country that calls for a tough crackdown on gangs.
About 13.6 million of the 17.7 million inhabitants of Ecuador are called this Sunday, April 21, to vote Yes or No to eleven questions posed by President Daniel Noboa.
Among the main proposals is the extradition of nationals linked to organized crime, in a country where gangs linked to drug trafficking impose a regime of terror.
On Friday, the murder of another mayor joined a dozen murders of politicians since 2023.
Read alsoEcuadorians prepare to vote in a referendum amid the security crisis
The triple crisis: diplomatic, hydroelectric and violence
The popular consultation comes at a difficult time for the nation. In January, an attack by illegal organizations left around twenty dead and led Noboa to declare an internal armed conflict.
The military settled inside the prisons and deployed operations in the streets to stop the violence, which in 2023 left a record rate of 43 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, according to official data. In 2018 this figure was 6 violent deaths.
Violence has also increased on the eve of the referendum. In the last week, two mayors of two towns in whose territories there is presence of illegal mining have been shot dead, one of the activities in which organized crime has dabbled, in addition to drug trafficking.
Hence, of the eleven questions of the plebiscite, the majority are intended to provide the State with new tools to combat organized crime, such as the one that proposes that the Armed Forces can support the Police in operations against criminal gangs. permanently, without the need to issue states of exception.
Added to the internal war was an international crisis due to the police assault on the Mexican embassy in Quito at the beginning of April, by order of the president to capture former vice president Jorge Glas (2013-2017), who is being investigated for corruption.
Noboa, 36, affirms that he has “zero regrets” for the raid on the legation, which cost the country a lawsuit before the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
There are “perceptions that the diplomatic crisis with Mexico has not generated negative effects (on Noboa within the country). On the contrary, people are endorsing the decisions he has made on the issue of security,” the political scientist told AFP. Santiago Basabe, from the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences (Flacso).
The consultation will also take place in the midst of an electricity crisis that has the country under blackouts of up to 13 hours due to the drought.
Noboa also faces a historic deficit in the reservoirs that supply the water plants, which led it to suspend the work day for two days (until Friday) and order power cuts.
Despite the political and electrical storm, the Government has “expectations of being able to win the referendum on Sunday,” according to Basabe.
One by one, the 11 approaches of the referendum
The referendum aims to obtain citizen support to confront insecurity, one of the country's main challenges. President Noboa has declared an “internal armed conflict” against twenty criminal gangs, which his government now considers “terrorists” and “belligerent non-state actors.”
Among the issues that will be put to a vote is the possibility of the Armed Forces providing support to the Police in the fight against organized crime, the extradition of Ecuadorians, the creation of courts in constitutional matters, the recognition of international arbitrations and the flexibility of the labor market with temporary and hourly contracts.
1. Role of the Armed Forces: the Government seeks to grant a permanent role to the Armed Forces in the fight against organized crime, eliminating the need for temporary states of exception.
2. Extradition: the proposal is to enable the extradition of Ecuadorians claimed by the Justice of other countries, except in cases where the death penalty or cruel punishments are applied, as well as for political crimes, except terrorism and crimes against humanity. The current Constitution indicates that “In no case will the extradition of an Ecuadorian be granted and that his trial is subject to the laws of Ecuador”.
3. International arbitrations: it is proposed to expand the recognition of international arbitrations at a global level to provide greater legal security and attract foreign investments.
4. Hourly contracts: the aim is to introduce temporary and hourly labor contracts to generate employment and stop irregular migration.
5. Constitutional courts: The president proposed the creation of courts specialized in constitutional matters to avoid judicial corruption and guarantee a better legal process.
6. Hardening of penalties: the increase and toughening of penalties for various crimes, including terrorism, drug trafficking, murder, human trafficking and others, is one of the proposals for this referendum.
7. Elimination of prison benefits: another question is about the possibility of depriving certain convicts of benefits so that they can fully serve their prison sentence.
8. Military in prisons: the possibility is also foreseen for the Armed Forces to control access to prisons to prevent the introduction of weapons and explosives.
9. Crime of possession of exclusive weapons: the Government proposes establishing the crime of possession or carrying of weapons, ammunition or components that are for the exclusive use of the Armed Forces and the Police, to prevent them from ending up in the hands of criminal gangs.
10. Weapons seized for state forces: the Ecuadorian Government will seek to allocate the weapons seized to criminal gangs and criminals to equip state forces.
11. Express expropriation: one of the proposals is to simplify the procedures for the expropriation of assets of illicit or unjustified origin.
Extradition, the big issue of the referendum
Extradition is at the center of the debate in a country that calls for a tough crackdown on gangs.
In neighboring Colombia, Pablo Escobar waged an all-out war against the State to avoid prison in the United States that was marked by the indiscriminate detonation of car bombs and the kidnapping or murder of political leaders, journalists and judges.
The Executive admits the adverse scenario.
“The country is going through extremely difficult times, times where we are suffering attacks that are the result of a determined fight that we must wage against organized crime,” said the Secretary of Communication, Roberto Izurieta.
According to the pollster Cedatos, in a survey conducted between April 8 and 11, 55% of Ecuadorians will vote in favor of toughening laws against drug trafficking.
For its part, the firm Comunicaliza points out that 43% of the population supports it, but that those who are undecided reach 28%.
Noboa denounces sabotage
Noboa says that the bad timing of the popular consultation is orchestrated by “sabotage” and a “dirty campaign”, although without directly accusing anyone. He maintains that the lack of light not only responds to drought, but also to corruption.
“They have wanted to ruin us with sabotage in the electrical area, they have wanted to ruin us with a dirty campaign, and they have even tried with international pressure to sanction us as a country (…) because they are nervous, on Sunday the Yes will win,” Noboa said days before the vote.
For Basabe, in practice the consultation will not bring fundamental changes.
For example, regarding the increase in penalties “you can put a thousand years,” but that will not reduce violence or drug trafficking, he said.
These are questions that “one could hardly say no to,” but “they are a way of legitimizing the government in power,” according to the analyst.
Measurement of Noboa's popularity?
Noboa, in power since the end of November 2023, comes to the vote with an important cushion of popularity that at the beginning of the year reached around 80%.
And although Noboa's popularity has skyrocketed since January with the declaration of “internal armed conflict” to combat criminal gangs, the energy crisis and blackouts of up to eight hours a day have generated discontent in the population.
And to this is added the wave of violence, which in recent years has led Ecuador to be one of the countries with the most homicides per capita in Latin America, with 45 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023.
With AFP and EFE
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