The coalition is currently the most likely election winner. The party is still frantically thinking about how and by whom the victory will happen, writes HS Vision editor Emil Elo in his analysis.
Nine in a month, Finland will know the next prime minister’s party.
The betting sites of the most well-known bookmakers are not yet open, but the lowest coefficient is likely to be offered to the association that has dominated the polls.
Mightily in the most recent support survey, the coalition’s popularity had narrowed by a couple of percentage points to 23.7 percent after the NATO spring. The closest challenger was Sdp with 19.8 percent support.
On the same morning that Yle published its support survey, a coalition member of parliament Kalle Jokinen sent an email to the media. Jokinen, who has worked as a member of parliament since 2009, said he will leave the parliament at the end of this term.
He will be one more name in the coalition’s list of MPs who will change next spring.
For example The vote rakes of the 2019 Helsinki electoral district are currently giving way to others.
Ben Zyskowicz (12,556 votes in the 2019 elections) has considered possibly leaving parliament for health reasons, but has not yet made a decision. Jaana Pelkonen (10,563 votes) has already served the party and will continue his career elsewhere. Juhana Vartiainen (8,206 votes) will continue as the mayor of the city. Some coalition sources say that Wille Rydman (5,910) is not seen on the coalition’s candidate list.
More than 37,000 votes from the Helsinki Four brought a little less than half of the entire Helsinki pot of the coalition in the last election. In the next elections, you can’t rely on familiar names when you have to generate additional support at the same time.
To disintegrate Fortunately for the coalition, during the election period, a patch by name has moved to Helsinki Elina Valtonen, from which the party office is waiting for the votes of the next election. Valtonen, who already saved the mayor’s seat for the coalition in the municipal elections, leaves a gap in Uusimaa, where at the moment there is “only” available as an anchor candidate Kai Mykkänen.
In Uusimaa, too, the coalition wants to break away from other parties by taking one or two additional seats in the electoral area.
According to the little birds of politics, the coalition has made international calls in the direction of Florence. Collected huge numbers of votes in previous elections from Uusilda Alexander Stubb however, is not enthusiastic about it at least yet.
In the provinces In addition to Kalle Jokinen, the second most popular member of the coalition in the Häme constituency (5,934 votes), the party’s Varsinais-Suomen election lists will also have the deceased Ilkka Kanerva (7,350 votes).
The big question in actual Finland is who or who will inherit Kanerva’s effective background organization of about a thousand people, which took care of Kanerva’s entrance from decade to decade. It could also be that no one.
Also the newly elected mayor of Tampere Anna-Kaisa Ikonen (9,101 votes) the work on his city is probably still crucially unfinished.
The above-mentioned seven coalition laws, which are likely to recede, brought the party nearly 12 percent of the votes, about 60,000, in the last election.
The roof may not stay there either. For example Paula Risikko (9,891 votes) has not yet told the public about his further plans.
In the field of politics the people change, of course, and the removal of even well-known names from the electoral lists does not sway the parties much. It is generally thought that after two election terms, the candidate must reform or change, because the priorities of the electorate change in eight years.
Statistically, the candidate’s votes start to decrease after two seasons.
For example, the Christian Democrats Päivi Räsänen the number of votes has almost halved since the 1999 election, and in 2019 Räsänen was the last candidate who made it to parliament from the Häme constituency.
At the convention are effective districts from which new candidates are currently being pushed. For example, in the electoral district of Oulu, the coalition’s list of candidates is already almost full, when the district office has nominated 15 out of 18 candidates.
In total, the coalition has already nominated around 80 candidates nine months before the elections, which is the most of the parties.
One member of the coalition suspects that these elections will not feature last-minute celebrity candidates, but that the party’s district offices want to quickly fill the lists themselves.
Many members of the Communist Party who have been doing organizational work for a long time feel that they have now once in a lifetime – the opportunity to enter parliament when there is space on the electoral lists and the party’s support is high.
With several candidates, the possibility also becomes concrete.
In the process the structure of the coalition’s parliamentary group changes. Depending on Zyskowicz’s decision, approximately 130 years of experience as a member of parliament is leaving the group.
In any case, the next parliamentary group of the coalition is going to be inexperienced or fresh – depends on the income angle.
It is likely that in the next term the “experienced guard” of the coalition means Sari Sarcomaata, Anne-Mari from Estonia and Sanni from Grahn-Laas.
At least it doesn’t reduce the pressure to elect a female president for a party that hasn’t had a female leader yet.
#Analysis #coalition #booming #polls #partys #parliamentary #group #inexperienced #spring
