HS Analysis | Boris Johnson has perplexingly survived one shock after another, but now the exit looks more certain than ever before

“I would think sothat he is leaving Downing Street [pääministerin virka-asunnosta] only carried, accompanied by a crybaby. But if the situation calls for it, we will do it that way.”

This is how the decision-maker of the conservative party, who remained anonymous, described the mood on Wednesday to the Reuters news agency.

The speech is of course the Prime Minister of Boris Johnson, whose days at the helm of Britain may actually be numbered this time.

Johnson’s position as chairman of the conservative party and prime minister of his country has been the subject of constant questioning for months.

Upheavals have followed each other, the overwhelming majority of the people have turned against the prime minister and Johnson’s conservative party has suffered significant losses in by-elections and by-elections in areas where the party has normally been very strong.

So far, Johnson has withstood every uproar that has come his way, which is why almost all analyzes written about the prime minister have talked about Johnson’s confusing “Teflon surface”.

Of course, Johnson has been a highly controversial figure in British politics even before he took office Theresa May to replace him as prime minister at the end of the deadlocked Brexit negotiations in the summer of 2019.

It has not mattered, however, because Johnson has managed to keep his party and himself popular for a long time and bring the conservatives an electoral victory. It has been the most important thing for the party elite.

Now there might be a moment when Johnson’s Teflon surface, which seemed to withstand everything, is no longer enough for protection.

The latest twists and turns started on Tuesday evening, when two important people in the government, the Minister of Finance Rishi Sunak and the Minister of Health Sajid Javid announced their resignation and at the same time shared their distrust of Johnson. Johnson appointed new ministers.

After Sunak’s and Javid’s announcements, resignations have trickled down from numerous other Conservative politicians at various levels. Announcements of new separations have been coming in during Wednesday at such a pace that it is difficult to keep up with the reading.

The British newspapers have been filled with analyzes in which Johnson’s resignation is spoken in even more emphatic terms. The prime minister does not intend to give up his position on his own initiative. He made that clear during the prime minister’s question hour organized in parliament on Wednesday.

“If, as a government, we were not able to act in the way that our mandate allows, or if our support to the people of Ukraine was blocked,” Johnson answered the question about the situation in which he could resign.

Reason to the resignation of conservative politicians and the radical deterioration of Johnson’s situation, there is a recent uproar concerning a prominent party official Chris Pincher.

Johnson appointed Pincher to the position in February, but Pincher resigned at the end of June after he was publicly accused of sexual harassment.

Since the new allegations have come to light, Pincher has also been accused of several similar incidents that have allegedly happened in the past. Johnson’s representatives have claimed at first that the prime minister had not known about the allegations when he appointed Pincher to the post, but later it was revealed that he had known about the allegations years ago.

A Pincher’s furrow is only the tip of the iceberg in Johnson’s situation, but it may eventually turn the majority of Conservative Party representatives against their leader.

Only a month ago, in a tight vote, Johnson won the confidence of the majority of the parliamentary group of the Conservative Party. At that time, Johnson won the vote of confidence 211–148.

The result was still considered very worrying for the Prime Minister, as it meant that more than 40 percent of the representatives of his own party would have wanted to fire him.

The previous vote was held after there had been talk of a “corona party scare” in Britain throughout the beginning of the year: Johnson had participated in parties organized during the strict corona restrictions during his office hours, even though all non-work-related events were prohibited.

Johnson was fined and apologized for his actions several times, but it turned a large part of the nation against him. According to polls, two-thirds of Britons were against Johnson at the beginning of June.

In addition to the corona celebration, Johnson’s worries have included, among other things, the severe inflation plaguing the country, the gasoline shortage that previously made headlines, and last fall’s incident in which the prime minister stood up to support a conservative MP Owen Patersonwho had been caught lobbying for a corporate bill.

In principle the result of the confidence vote in June should mean that, according to the party’s own rules, Johnson cannot be challenged again for a year.

During Wednesday, it started to look like this protection is not going to last. During the day, based on information from inside the party, the British media have written that the rules of the so-called 1922 committee responsible for the vote would be ready to be changed.

If this is done, the chairman of the committee Graham Brady can call a vote as soon as enough rank-and-file MPs have expressed their displeasure with a “letter”. At least 54 letters are needed, so it seems clear that if the rule change is achieved, the vote will take place.

of The Guardian according to the committee management will meet on Wednesday afternoon and may change its rules already then.

Political reporter for the news channel Sky News Tom Larkin anticipate on Twitterthat a new vote of confidence can be completed as early as Wednesday.

If the majority of the Conservative Party’s parliamentary group voted against Johnson’s confidence this time, it would mean the end of his term.

Possibly After Johnson’s resignation, the Conservative Party should decide next who will succeed him.

Until now, one of Johnson’s big advantages has been the fact that there has not been a clear number one challenger in the Conservative Party.

Rishi Sunak, who resigned from the position of finance minister yesterday, has been considered one of the strongest candidates, but his reputation has been affected by the uproar related to his family’s tax status. Like Johnson, Sunak has also been fined for violating corona regulations.

of The Guardian in the new analysis published by Penny Mordaunt. The minister of defense, for example, has also been brought up By Ben Wallace name.

If Johnson would have to resign, he would continue to carry out the task until the Conservative Party could elect a new leader for the party, who would then become the new Prime Minister.

Although the leader of the Labor Party Keir Starmer has already publicly anticipated the next prime minister, Johnson’s resignation does not automatically mean new elections, if the new president can continue to hold the majority of the parliament behind him. There is still a strong conservative majority in Parliament.