How the return of a Trump with a history of excellent relations with Morocco could affect Spain

José Antonio Gurpegui, professor of North American studies and director of the Franklin Institute at the University of Alcalá, explains to ABC that this link goes back a long way. The sultanate of Morocco in the 18th century He was the first to accept the independence of the United States from Great Britain.. “Since then they have always had an excellent relationship,” says the expert.

Gurpegui adds another detail that “in fact, is already well studied: Morocco in 1975 would never have started the Green March over the Sahara –which in 2025 celebrates its 50th anniversary– if it had not had the approval of the United States. Or, for example, what happened with the famous Parsley Island: The lack of support from the US on this issue was what motivated Morocco to withdraw from the rock. That is to say, in our relationship with Morocco we must always keep in mind that the United States may be in the way.”

A stronger Morocco

The Moroccan press has also echoed the change that Trump’s arrival could mean. Media such as ‘Morocco World News’ when talking about the understanding between Rabat and Washington brings up an analysis by Pedro Francisco Ramos Josa published by the Center for National Defense Studies (Ceseden) of the Spanish Ministry of Defense. «The report suggests that, while Spain remains an important ally of the United States within NATO and hosts the naval base of Rotaof strategic importance, the United States has prioritized its relationship with Morocco over Spain as a ‘regional partner’ in the Mediterranean,” the outlet states.

Furthermore, several experts have commented to Europa Press, and Gurpegui agrees with them, that we could find ourselves facing a more empowered Morocco by recovering with Trump a great ally of its cause. «I could adopt a more assertive stance and want to increase pressure to gain more support for the Moroccan identity of the Sahara. And this scenario could end up taking its toll on Spain,” they state. Added to this is that The relations between Morocco and Algeria could become even more strained and end up affecting our country.

At the blow of Twitter

A message from Trump on social networks in December 2020, a month before leaving the Presidency, indicated that the plan that Morocco presented in 2007 for autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty for Western Sahara before the UN “is the only basis for a fair and lasting solution for peace and prosperity. “Morocco recognized the United States in 1777. It is, therefore, appropriate that we recognize its sovereignty over Western Sahara,” the president added on his Twitter account, now X.

Europa Press points out that this message was “largely responsible for In March 2022, Spain will support the Moroccan autonomy plan for the Sahara. And that last July France did the same and even went further, by stating that autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the framework in which this issue must be resolved,” he says.

It should be noted that this gesture on Trump’s part came with the collection of a toll. I was looking for support for Israel within the framework of the Abraham Accords 2020. Arab countries such as the United Arab Emirates (USA), Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco recognized Israel and established diplomatic relations with it, and the United States provided them with a series of benefits in return. In this regard, the Ceseden document indicated that «U.S. It has preferred to prioritize its relations with a non-democratic regime in exchange for strengthening Israeli security. That is, under the transactional approach that prevails in Washington, Morocco offered the United States more than Spain on this occasion», he explains.

Agreements that would have been a milestone, but were interrupted by the Hamas attack in October 2023. However, the imprint of this idea may try to recover with the return of Trump, and with it, establish new benefits. While I could create some tensions with Spainafter, as Gurpegui recalls, it did not comply with the policy of the European Economic Community, declaring the recognition of the State of Palestine.

The immigration issue

Soler indicated to Europa Press that Trump supporting Morocco could pose a greater risk that Rabat “don’t feel satisfied” with what Spain offers you and try to activate the immigration lever. “The fact that he has ‘more sympathies’ a priori for Morocco than for Spain ‘represents an added challenge’ in the event of new tension between the two countries such as that experienced with the massive assault in Ceuta in 2021,” says Soler. A form of pressure that is not new for Gurpegui and that other countries also use.

Soler clarifies that Morocco will have to do its calculations and “think to what extent it is interested in weakening the Spanish Government. They have to measure well and not go too far if they do not want to generate a political situation that goes against them”, and at the same time he says “Morocco will always want more.”

In this sense, Gurpegui points out that Moroccan diplomacy has a level of continuity in its favor. Because the same men who were present in Trump’s first term continue in the Foreign Ministry. «Being an authoritarian country, it has a much greater capacity for movement than a democratic country can have. Regarding American foreign policy, it does not change in some aspects regardless of whether there is a Democratic or Republican government. However, in Spain this is not the case. Our foreign policy has always been somewhat erratic. And Morocco has proven to be a very astute policy», he says.

Military and trade agreements

As ‘Morocco World News’ highlights, the Free Trade Agreement between the United States and Morocco has allowed bilateral trade that has increased fivefold since its creation. Likewise, in 2018, when Trump governed, Morocco closed important arms contracts with American companies. While its defense spending increased by 50%, which allowed it to acquire a large number of combat tanks, as well as F-16 aircraft, frigates and a submarine. Those new military purchases with cutting-edge technology They continue today and include a spy satellite to an Israeli company or the sale of American missiles and equipment for 260 million dollars. Which has generated concern that some of these weapons end up surpassing other countries in the area in technology.

And in October 2020, the Alawite kingdom and the United States signed a Defense Cooperation Roadmapto to improve military cooperation until 2030. Much of this strengthening of the Moroccan armed forces responds to the race it maintains with neighboring Algeria, which had almost tripled its military budget in ten years, as Colonel Juan A. Mora told ABC. Tebas, specialist at the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE). A rivalry that is still alive and in which there is the always tense question of the Sahara, and in which the Algerians are a traditional support for the Polisario Front.

Of recovered promises, old quarrels and Algerian gas for Spain

Before Trump left in 2020, he had promised toopening of a consulate in Dakhlathe old Villa Cisneros. A project that for Soler is likely to resurrect the magnate. And that could lead Morocco to “increase pressure on Spain to do similar things.”

On this board of interests where an emboldened Morocco could make some mention of Ceuta and Melilla, Laurence Thieux, professor of International Relations at the UCM, explained to Europa Press that another risk that could ultimately harm Spain is the increase in rivalry between Morocco and Algeria. “It can lead to a direct confrontation between the two countrieswho compete for hegemony in the Maghreb. Algeria “she may feel a little threatened” and even “cornered” if Trump continues with his initiative to reconcile the Arab countries with Israel. And while neither party wants a direct confrontation “you never know», admits Thieux.

In this regard, Trump’s favor being directed towards Morocco could also have an impact on the Algerian gas that Spain receives. In this case, Gurpegui indicates that our country would have to practice a much better foreign policy than it had until now. «I want to believe that we will not screw up again, but that has to do with the capacity of our politicians when it comes to moving in a conflict between Morocco and Algeria. Mistakes could very well be made again. But I would like to think, that we have learned from past mistakes», says Gurpegui.