With the effects it has been having on geopolitics and the world economy through the invasion of Ukraine, Russia will undoubtedly play a leading role (or antagonist?) on a global scale in 2022. In Italy’s general elections, which will be held next Sunday (25), this influence has appeared with great force.
The right-wing coalition that leads the polls (and which could make Giorgia Meloni the country’s first female prime minister) internally diverges on sanctions on Moscow, the main bet – along with military aid to Kyiv – for a Ukrainian victory in the conflict that started in February. .
Matteo Salvini, leader of the League, one of the coalition parties, said in early September that the conservative alliance would continue to support Ukraine, but cast doubt on the continuation of economic retaliation against Vladimir Putin’s country.
“If we take over the government, will we change our alliances? Not. We remain deeply, proudly and firmly rooted in a free and democratic West that opposes war and aggression,” she declared. “But if we adopted an instrument to harm the aggressor and after seven months of war he was not harmed, at least considering a change seems legitimate to me.”
Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy (FdI), the party that heads the coalition, has reiterated that an eventual right-wing government would maintain the policies of the current prime minister Mario Draghi on this issue, so that the country’s “international credibility” is maintained – that is, , military aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.
The association with Putin haunts the League and another coalition party, Forza Italia (FI), led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi (the fourth party in the alliance is Nós Moderados). The League has already been investigated by the Italian courts on suspicion of having received money from Moscow and Salvini has expressed admiration for the Russian president in the past, with whom Berlusconi is a friend.
Last week, the secret services of the United States disclosed that Russia had financed politicians of other countries with US$ 300 million. Although Italian parties were not named, the League, the FdI and the IF were quick to deny the receipt of funds.
Meloni announced a lawsuit against the newspaper Repubblica and Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to NATO, who told the publication: “We have known for years that Russians use financial resources to influence elections across the West. They try to promote division in our societies and between our countries. This US$ 300 million did not produce much, but it did improve the prospects of some parties, such as [Marine]
Le Pen in France and the FdI in Italy”.
This Thursday (22), Berlusconi, who had criticized the Russian president at the beginning of the war, told Italian public broadcaster RAI that Putin “was pressured by the Russian people, by his party, by his ministers to create this special operation” – citing the term used by the Kremlin to refer to the invasion of Ukraine.
Berlusconi further claimed that Russia’s initial plan was to conquer Kyiv “in a week” and replace Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with “a government of decent people” and leave “in another week”.
Another sham in this last week of the campaign was a Twitter post made by the Russian Embassy in Italy that showed pictures of Putin alongside Italian politicians, such as former prime minister Matteo Renzi, Salvini, Berlusconi and the leader of the coalition of left, Enrico Letta, Meloni’s main opponent in Sunday’s election.
The images were accompanied by a provocative message: “From the recent history of Russian-Italian relations. There is something to remember.”
Majority support lifting sanctions
In August, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called for politicians who advocate sanctions against Moscow to be defeated in elections being held this year in Europe.
“We would like to see European citizens not only outraged by the actions of their governments, but also held accountable and punished for their obvious stupidity,” he wrote on Telegram. “Take action, European neighbors. Don’t be silent. Demand that they be held accountable.”
Also last month, the Intelligence Committee of the Italian Parliament pointed out, in its annual report, that Italy suffers from “a substantial weakness in its interventions to combat disinformation and the various forms of interference” in the cyberwar environment – and mentioned the Russia as one of those threats.
“Editing and spreading fake news, social media campaigns and the use of trolls are establishing themselves as sophisticated and far-reaching tools of influence by Russia and other state actors,” the document indicated.
Regardless of whether or not there is Russian interference in the Italian electoral process, rising inflation (the year-on-year rate stood at 8.4% in August, the highest in more than 36 years), especially in the energy sector, is already causing a drop in the public support for sanctions on Russia.
In a recent poll by the Termometro Político institute, 51% of respondents said they were in favor of removing them to alleviate pressures on the Italian economy.
Michele Geraci, a former under-secretary at Italy’s Ministry of Economic Development and close to the League’s summit, left the possibility of reviewing sanctions open if the right-wing coalition really wins next Sunday.
“Both [Meloni e Salvini] they want sanctions that end the war – that’s the goal. There is a lot of confusion about whether sanctions are working or not. Salvini is slowly understanding that they are not, while Meloni may not have understood this yet. After the election campaign, when they have time to properly assess the impact, they may decide to drop them. [sanções] or try to change them”, he said, in an interview with the British newspaper The Guardian.
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