After Russia began its invasion of Ukraine this Thursday (24), in a planned and denounced military action since last year, one question remains: if Moscow decides to take the former Soviet republic (which seems to be the case, given that that the attacks are not limited to the Donbass region), will the Ukrainians be able to resist one of the largest military forces in the world for how long?
The difference in power is huge: according to figures from the military balance sheet of Global Firepower and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Russian armed forces have 900,000 active soldiers, against 200,000 in Ukraine (the president Volodymyr Zelensky decreed the recruitment of reservists to alleviate this disadvantage).
In infrastructure, it is also an unequal contest: Russia has, for example, 1,511 attack aircraft, while its neighbor has only 98, and 12,240 tanks against Kiev’s 2,596.
For economist and entrepreneur Igor Lucena, a doctoral candidate in International Relations at the University of Lisbon, a member of Chatham House/The Royal Institute of International Affairs and the Portuguese Political Science Association, “Ukraine alone would not last until the end of the week”.
“We just saw the taking of Chernobyl [a antiga usina foi ocupada pelo exército russo]and more troops are heading [ao país] not only for Donetsk and Lugansk, but also for Belarus. What will determine whether Ukraine will survive as an independent republic in the coming days is the support capacity of the Western powers, whether the next economic sanctions will be enough to bring Moscow back to the negotiating table and stop the military attacks,” he argued.
Lucena cited the possibility of Russia being disconnected from the Swift international payment system (which connects transactions between banks around the world), a measure that would paralyze the entire Russian economy and is defended by Ukraine and the United Kingdom. The researcher believes that there will be no direct Western military participation in support of Kiev.
“I don’t think there will be a NATO military incursion into the region, but military equipment, money will be allocated to Ukraine, and maybe [haverá]
some kind of training”, he pointed out.
“But Ukraine is in a very complicated situation, if it gives in and signs the agreements that Moscow wants, that is, denying membership to NATO and the European Union, basically it hands over its domestic and foreign policy to Russia. If she resists, by the weekend the government could fall, due to the military advance towards Kiev”, Lucena pointed out.
On Thursday, three senior US government officials told Newsweek magazine, on condition of anonymity, that they estimate Kiev will be taken by Russian forces by next Monday, and Ukraine’s government will fall by a week later.
A former US intelligence officer gave the magazine a similar time frame. “Once the air war and artillery war are over and the land war really starts, I think Kiev will fall in a few days,” he commented. “The military can last a little longer, but not long.”
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