The other day I was asked this question. As Sheinbaum has dedicated himself to managing his advantage in the surveyshas risked very little in revealing what kind of President she would be if she won the elections. elections of the next second of June. Therefore, here we are, a little more than a month before the elections, trying to guess.
It exists in Mexico a whole market of exegetes who try to explain to us “the true Claudia”. The interesting thing is how they contradict each other. Some see her separating herself from the project and style of Lopez Obrador. Others believe that he will stick as closely as possible to the López Obrador script, if not that he will be a mere puppet of the current President who in reality will continue to govern from his ranch in Palenque.
At the risk of becoming just another exegete, I will try to answer the question I was asked the other day.
I think Claudia will be very pragmatic on economic issues.
In no way is it convenient for her to enter as President (if she wins, I insist) and a crisis is generated that makes the Gross domestic product (GDP) and/or inflation shoots up.
He understood this very well. Lopez Obrador. What hit the PRI as the dominant party was precisely the economic crises of the eighties and nineties of the last century. For this reason, AMLO behaved reasonably responsibly in the management of public finances, except for the last year of his government where, yes, for electoral purposes, he has indebted the country by five percentage points of GDP to increase current spending, in particular social programs.
In this way, whether Claudia or Xóchitl Gálvez becomes President, one of their first challenges will be to balance public finances. The Pre-Criteria of the government's economic package for 2025 already foresee a 12% drop in public spending in real terms. This is a huge cut. After a year –2024– of fiscal expansionism, we will enter one –2025– of contraction.
Therefore, for the economy to continue growing, Sheinbaum will have to encourage private sector spending and investment. In this sense, he must establish a fluid relationship, without setbacks or surprises, with the businessmen.
The imminent crisis in public finances forces it to be more pragmatic than ideological in economic matters.
Where he will have to juggle ideology and pragmatism will be with the future of Pemex. The oil company is the great bottomless barrel of public finances. This six-year term has received support from the federal government in the order of 1.65 billion pesos to stay afloat. This is unsustainable. Either order is put in Pemex or the treasury bankrupt.
I think Claudia is clear about it. However, on this issue, López Obradorism is very ideological. In their old nationalist dogma, they consider the State company as a pillar of economic development. They are convinced that Pemex must be “rescued” at any cost, when what it needs is a thorough restructuring to get rid of businesses, such as refining, that produce enormous economic losses.
I cannot imagine, in this sense, Claudia carrying out the great reform in order to make Pemex viable. This would confront her with López Obrador himself and the most radical of her movement.
Therefore, it will be very interesting to see his juggling between ideology and pragmatism in relation to Pemex.
Where I do see Claudia as very ideological is in everything that has to do with social issues. And when I say ideology I think fundamentally of statism: giving priority to the State over possible market solutions. Starting, of course, with social programs. Sheinbaum already said that he wants to maintain them and even extend them. For example, bringing to all states a scholarship for preschool and primary school students that she implemented in Mexico City as head of government.
I also see it as ideological in education and health. No outsourcing to the private sector or financing projects that are not operated by the government. As a left-wing militant, Sheinbaum thinks that the State should be in charge 100% of everything that has to do with social issues.
With a small problem that he will face: to see where he gets the money to finance a more interventionist State than the one we already have.
In short, I see Claudia as pragmatic when it comes to economics, a juggler when it comes to Pemex, and ideological when it comes to social issues.
X: @leozuckermann
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