The independent manager Horos AM has updated this Wednesday its vision of the market and the position they maintain in it, with 145 million assets under management and 5,000 participants distributed between the two stock market funds they manage (one international and the other Iberian) and the three pension plans. They highlight the continuity of a management team that has been working together for 12 years (6 and a half of them already under the head of Horos), achieving a cumulative profitability of 294% (11.6% annualized return) with the global strategy and 208% with the regional strategy (9.7% annualized return), according to José María Concejo, CEO and partner of the entity.
Looking ahead, they start from a quantitative analysis of the valuation they make of the companies that make up their portfolios and defend that the international should revalue by 125% in the next three years while the one that is made up of Spanish and Portuguese values would rise 110% to reach the prices they calculate until the end of 2027.
Javier Ruiz, partner and investment director of the manager, explains his vision of the market despite the fact that the investment philosophy contemplates more of a company-by-company analysis than at a general level. “In recent years we have seen the same dynamic, especially in the US market, where there is an increasing concentration. Only 10 values account for 36% of the capitalization of the entire S&P 500 and they are conditioning the evolution of the entire stock market, both in the US and globally, where the weight of American firms already represents 65% of the MSCI World,” he explains. “We see some similarities with the bubble dotcom, where Cisco led the deployment of the internet and was worth 5.5% of the US GDP. Now the size of NVIDIA is double,” he warns, and regrets that even many active managers have decided throw in the towel and get on the train
And the valuations of the US stock market “are not a bargain.” trading at very demanding levels both in absolute and relative terms to the past and, with all this, it is being the best year of the century for Wall Street, which is quite significant,” continues the expert. “We do not think that the best ideas are there but in other areas, such as the hong kong stock marketheavily penalized by the evolution of China’s economy and the real estate crisis there,” he continues. “The poor investment mood and the deterioration in consumption explain the 35% drop that these stock markets have suffered in the last 5 years, which “Everyone is waiting for the great fiscal stimulus after the one already deployed by the authorities, although we do not depend on that and we have been invested there for several years in well-managed companies. “explains Ruiz.
The other market where they see greater potential is in Europewhere they have 60% of the international portfolio invested. “Here the situation is not dramatic but it is not buoyant either. The Stoxx 600 has done worse than the S&P 500 in 8 of the last 10 years and this year is no different,” explains Javier Ruiz. By sectors, the greatest weights are distributed among companies dedicated to investing in others, such as holdings, industrial, benefited by investment in infrastructure, and financial, above the others. Among the fundamentals that they value most are, in addition to the multipliers, “that they have little or no debt, that they understand the business, that they are well managed, with a clear competitive advantage over the sector and that there is a high margin of safety in terms of profitability/risk”, concludes Ruiz.
In Spain, the main positions of the Iberian fund are Catalana Oeste, its international fund, NH Hoteles, Alantra, Iberpapel and Atalaya Mining.
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