The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) proposed the year 2030 as “the deadline to end the HIV epidemic as a threat to public health.” However, the US Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimates that global efforts may not be enough to meet this goal. Although there is an overall decrease in new infections, cases are increasing in regions where the infection rate is low.
In his research published in The Lancetthe IHME analyzed HIV/AIDS cases from 1990 to 2021 in 204 countries. They observed a 21.9% reduction in the number of new HIV infections worldwide. The databases went from 2.11 million new cases in 2010 to registering 1.65 million in 2021. Meanwhile, deaths related to the virus decreased by 39.7%, from 1.19 million deaths in 2010 to 718,000 in 2021.
Despite the progress, researchers found that not all regions of the world combat HIV/AIDS in the same way. Sub-Saharan Africa is where the incidence of infections decreased the most. Since its peak in 1995, the probability of contracting the virus has fallen by 60%. Instead, regions such as Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, North Africa and the Middle East experienced an increase in HIV incidence and mortality.
The maximum number of cases will arrive in 2039
With these data, the IHME extrapolated the figures to the coming years. Although the incidence shows a decrease, this will not be enough to meet the UNAIDS objectives for 2030. According to forecasts, in 2039 the maximum number of people with HIV/AIDS will be registered, with an estimated figure of 44.4 million total cases. A gradual decline will then follow to 43.4 million in 2050.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), in 2023 alone, 1.3 million people contracted HIV. Their cases were added to those already existing to give a total of 39.9 million people living with the infection globally. In that year, 630 thousand HIV-related deaths were recorded.
“Our projections indicate that continuation of current levels of HIV control is unlikely to achieve ambitious targets for reducing incidence and mortality by 2030. More than 40 million people worldwide will continue to require lifelong antiretroviral treatment.” for decades into the future. “The global community will need to make sustained and substantive efforts to achieve the progress necessary to maintain AIDS as a public threat,” states the IHME report.
December 1 is World AIDS Day. On this occasion, the WHO has chosen the motto “Let’s take the path of rights: my health, my right.” The organization takes advantage of the day to appeal to leaders and citizens around the world to defend the right to health by correcting the inequalities that hinder progress towards the end of AIDS.
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