The death of Hamas' number two, Saleh al-Arouri, in an attack on Tuesday in Beirut has heightened tensions in the region and increased fears that the war between Israel and Gaza could spread beyond the Strip. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied it was behind the attack. Hamas has warned that the bombing in the Lebanese capital will carry consequences, while Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are prepared for any scenario. The leader of the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, also issued a warning Wednesday: “If the enemy thinks of waging a war on Lebanon, we will fight without restraint, without rules, without limits and without restrictions.”
A day after the biggest blow to Hamas since the beginning of the war in the Palestinian enclave, clashes continue between Israel and Hezbollah on the border, while pleas to avoid an escalation of the conflict in the region continue.
On Wednesday, the West Bank awoke to closed stores, institutions, and businesses and there have been protests in cities such as Ramallah, the administrative capital of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA). Other Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah, which governs the West Bank with the PNA, called for a general strike to protest the death of al-Arouri. Hundreds of people demonstrated in Ramallah to the cry of “revenge.” The attack in which al-Arouri and five other people were killed, including two Hamas military leaders, targeted the Palestinian group's offices in Dahieh, a Beirut suburb controlled by Hezbollah, the militia that has been exchanging rockets, aerial fire, and artillery with Israel almost daily since the beginning of the war. If Israeli responsibility for the attack on al-Arouri is confirmed, it would be the first of its kind in Beirut since 2006.
The Hezbollah leader on Wednesday expressed his condolences for the death of al-Arouri and described the bombing as “a blatant Israeli aggression.” In a speech he had planned to deliver before news of Tuesday's attack broke, Nasrallah said that Hezbollah's “swift” action on October 8, after the start of the Israel-Hamas war, and the exchange of artillery fire on the border since then, had prevented a wider Israeli bombing campaign in Lebanon. He also vowed that there will be no “limits” or “rules” for the Iran-backed Shiite militia should Israel decide to attack Lebanon. “Whoever thinks of war with us, in one word, he will regret it,” he said.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said hours earlier that his government was talking to Hezbollah to convince the militia “that they should not respond” to Tuesday's Beirut attack. “We don't tell them, we dialogue with them in this regard,” Bou Habib specified in an interview with the BBC. The minister added it would be seen in the next 24 hours “whether they respond or not.” “We are very concerned, [the] Lebanese don't want to be dragged, even Hezbollah does not want to be dragged, into a regional war,” he added. Bou Habib called on the West to pressure Israel “to stop all its violence” in Lebanon and Gaza.
The United States has acknowledged that it is also concerned about a possible escalation. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said he could not offer an assessment of who was responsible for the attack, but emphasized that al-Arouri was “a brutal terrorist who was centrally responsible for the attacks of October 7 as well as other attacks against innocent civilians leading back to well before October 7.” Washington was not notified of the attack in advance, I have added.
Several voices have called for de-escalation. The UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon has warned that any escalation could have “devastating consequences” on both sides of the border.” “We continue to implore all parties to cease their fire, and any interlocutors with influence to urgently restraint,” said advocate Kandice Ardiel.
In Cairo, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi told a delegation of US senators that the priority is to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and emphasized the need to prevent the conflict from spreading in the region. “The President also underlined the crucial need to exert intensive and responsible efforts to avert factors conducive to the expansion of the conflict in the region, given the serious and momentary repercussions this would have on regional and international peace and security,” the Egyptian presidency said in a statement issued after the meeting.
For his part, French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday spoke with Benny Gantz, a member of Israel's emergency government. Macron said “it was essential to avoid any escalatory attitude, particularly in Lebanon, and that France would continue to pass on these messages to all players directly or indirectly involved in the area,” the Elysée said, as reported by BFM TV. Macron also expressed his “deep concern at the very high number of civilian deaths and the humanitarian emergency situation in Gaza.”
Meanwhile, the extent of a change in Hamas' stance remains unclear. Husam Badran, a member of the militia's political bureau in exile, reacted to al-Arouri's death by warning the “criminal occupation” – referring to Israel – that “the battle” between them and Hamas “is open.” But Sami Abu Zuhri, another senior official in the Palestinian Islamist group, stated that while al-Arouri's death “will have its consequences,” Hamas' position remains that, as long as Israel completely stops its attacks, it is open to talks “on all other issues.” Hamas and other Islamist factions are still holding 129 hostages in Gaza and there have been talks between the two sides for a possible ceasefire and the exchange of captives in the Strip for Palestinians imprisoned in Israel.
Iran, which warned Tuesday that the death of al-Arouri “will undoubtedly ignite another surge in the veins of resistance and the motivation to fight against the Zionist occupiers,” in the words of Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani, also issued a warning to the United States on Wednesday. Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Rez
a Ashtiani warned Washington to “prepare” for the consequences of the assassination of Hamas' number two, according to Iranian media. Joe Biden's administration, in his words, has “upset the regional balance,” and the “repercussions will have an adverse effect and beset the Americans themselves.”
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