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In South America you feel the heat. During the past week, meteorological teams in different cities recorded high temperatures. Between January 21 to 25, a heat wave in the south-central part of Chile and Argentina, as well as in the central area of Colombia. In Santiago de Chile, for example, with 36.7°C, the third highest temperature recorded in 112 years was reached. And in Colombia, where the Government declared a natural disaster situation due to forest fires, several municipalities also reached temperatures above average: 40.4ºC in Jerusalem (Cundinamarca); 37.6ºC in Sahagún (Córdoba) and 36.9ºC in the coastal city of Santa Marta (Magdalena). With 25.84°C, last Monday, Bogotá broke a historical record.
The scenario has generated alerts and questions about how to interpret what is happening. In an interview with América Futura, Bárbara Tapia Cortés, meteorologist and technical coordinator of Services at the Regional Office of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for the Americas based in Asunción, Paraguay, sheds light on how climate change and the current phenomenon of El Niño have played a role in driving these conditions.
Ask. Could it be said that, in South America, during the past few days, high temperature records were broken?
Answer. It is true that high temperatures were recorded last week. But there is not always enough data to determine whether records were indeed broken. Since there are absolute records, that is, historical ones, since records began. Or there are monthly records, which in other words means going in to see if this January 2024 has been one of the warmest. For example, last week in Chile 36.7°C was recorded, which is the third highest temperature recorded in January in 112 years. And today, with this trend of climate change, different rankings are made, such as the highest temperatures in the last ten years. But to say that South America, as a continent, broke a record is not correct. To know where specifically this happened, you have to consult directly with the meteorological services of each country, since they have the respective climate statistics that, at least, require 30 years of data.
Q. Likewise, the month of January is usually a hot month in the region.
R. Yes. Because the entire region is in the summer season, it is normal for us to have high temperature events. That's been my whole life. What is abnormal is that we have this reiteration or persistence of high temperatures, which is closely related to the El Niño phenomenon.
Q. What role is this phenomenon playing in these high temperatures?
R. This increase in temperature, which as I said, is a normal situation for the summer season, has been exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon, which has been present since May 2023 and is reaching its maximum between the months of December and January, a situation that tends to increase extreme high temperature events and, therefore, heat waves throughout South America. Due to the influence of El Niño, it is expected that the summer season in the region may present records of maximum temperatures above normal values for the season and that it will also be presenting accumulated precipitation below normal, especially in the north. such as in Colombia, Venezuela, Suriname, the Guianas and some areas of Brazil. It is worth remembering that we are coming from 2023, which has been the warmest year ever recorded and it is likely that the warming effect of the current El Niño episode will intensify the heat even more during 2024. This will cause even more extreme weather events that will destroy more lives and livelihoods.
Q. And how is all this related to climate change?
R. You have to understand something. The El Niño phenomenon is always characterized by the surface temperature of the ocean and its monitoring is done mainly in the central strip of the Ecuador, in the middle of the Pacific. But what happened? That the last Children, including this one, are being created from an ocean that is already warmer. It is as if you had a tub with hot water and you put more hot water in it, and not a tub with warm water and you put hot water in it. Something like that. So we know that: that the El Niño that is now affecting us was conceived in very warm conditions, but we do not yet know how to measure the way in which it will affect us, or how extreme it will be. Now, what we do know and what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) itself has said, is that, as each year seems to be warmer than the previous one, extreme events, and not only high temperatures, but also precipitation and other conditions, will become more frequent and more extreme. So what we can say is that the El Niño phenomenon that is affecting us right now has been influenced or exacerbated by global warming. And that implies that it will cause more damage to the population.
Q. Colombia declared a national emergency due to forest fires. There are also several outbreaks in Chile and, in Argentina, in Chubut, the situation was repeated. Although in some cases there are clues that they are intentional fires, what other causes could there be? How are weather conditions exacerbating them?
R. The prevailing meteorological conditions with high temperatures, low humidity content – atmospheric and soil – and sometimes moderate wind, favor its greater incidence, especially during the summer months. As of January 25, 2024, 81 fires persisted in Chile, of which six were under observation, 15 being fought, 55 controlled and 5 already extinguished, with an affected area of 1141.56 hectares. But, if high temperatures continue, these outbreaks will persist and could even increase during the summer. Meanwhile, in Colombia, high temperatures keep nearly 900 municipalities on alert due to the risk of forest fires.
Q. An extreme heat wave has also been reported in Argentine Patagonia. What is happening there and what could be the consequences of this heat wave?
R. High temperatures were recorded in Argentine Patagonia, with 43.9ºC in San Antonio Oeste, 42.5ºC in Cipolletti, 41.6ºC in Neuquén and 40.5ºC in San Juan. It is worth remembering that when we talk about a heat wave, we mean that, for three or more consecutive days, extremely high temperatures are recorded. This is why they pose a risk to people's health. Between 2000 and 2019, an estimated 489,000 people died each year due to heat. With very high maximum temperatures and also high minimum temperatures, the human body has greater difficulty dissipating heat, which affects the physiology of the human body and can produce serious consequences for people. A very relevant element is that heat does not affect all people equally. There are certain social groups that are particularly vulnerable: older adults, children under 5 years of age, people with a prevalence of heart, kidney and mental diseases or those who are at greater risk of suffering the consequences of heat. Also those who live alone and are isolated, those who live in precarious housing conditions and those who work outdoors.
Q. Until wh
at month is the region expected to experience these high temperatures?
R. The occurrence of extreme events – such as heat waves – could continue throughout much of the summer and early autumn months of the southern hemisphere, that is, until April or May 2024, on average. But we must remember that the intensity of the temperatures will be related to seasonality. In addition, the climate models of the Forecast Centers worldwide are estimating that the influence of El Niño should continue until the March-April-May quarter of 2024.
Q. Could this data tell us something that 2024 will surpass 2023 as the warmest year on record or is it too early to speculate?
R. It is still early to indicate that 2024 will be warmer than 2023, given that El Niño years are directly related to the global increases in temperatures recorded in recent decades. But the WMO, and like the Global Forecast Centers, continue to constantly monitor conditions, given that after El Niño normal conditions are expected to persist, but we are just about to end January so it is very risky to give a forecast.
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