The weather remains summery hot in July and August. According to experts, it can get particularly hot in some regions of Germany.
Munich – Summer has arrived in Germany – and it’s staying. Numerous regions have already been registering high temperatures and lots of sunshine for several days. The summery weather should continue, according to meteorologists, the next heat wave is even imminent.
But what does the weather look like as the summer progresses? The weather experts have ventured a first look at the months of July and August. It could get really hot in some regions.
Summer too warm and too dry: risk of drought and forest fires remains
The American weather service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and also the European weather model ECMWF see a very warm and at the same time dry summer trend in 2023 in current long-term models. According to the calculations, all three summer months could be warmer than average and with too little rain.
This means that the risk of droughts and forest fires in this country will remain for the time being. In Germany, there is currently a high risk of forest fires with warning levels 3 to 4. In large parts of the north-east and selectively in the south-west of the Federal Republic, the highest warning level of 5 currently applies.
Summer forecast 2023: Weather in July and August with temperatures around 40 degrees
The weather forecasts of the weather experts in this country are also based on the international weather models. Accordingly, there could already be a clear upward trend in temperatures in the last days of June. This could then reach its first peak in July with up to 10 degrees above the climate mean, report the meteorologists wetter.de. Peaks of around 40 degrees in the hottest parts of the country would therefore be conceivable.
The average summer temperature in Germany is 16.3 degrees. This mean temperature refers to the reference period 1961 to 1990, the so-called climate mean. According to weather records, the past summers were already warmer than the average climate:
2022 | Average temperature 19.2 degrees (+2.9 degrees deviation) |
2021 | Average temperature 17.9 degrees (+1.6 degrees deviation) |
2020 | Average temperature 18.2 degrees t (+1.9 degrees deviation) |
2019 | Mean temperature 19.2 degrees t (+2.9 degrees deviation) |
2018 | Mean temperature 19.3 degrees t (+3.0 degrees deviation) |
Source: German Weather Service (DWD) |
Heat hotspots in Germany: weather in the west and southwest particularly summery
Like the weather experts Björn Alexander and Karim Belbachir from wetter.de report, the hotspot of the heat in Germany this summer could be mainly in the west and south-west of Germany. After a cooling off in the further course of July, a new heat phase could then establish itself with a peak in August. Then peak values over 40 degrees are also possible again. However, the experts also point out that long-term calculations should be treated with appropriate caution.
“After the very warm and dry June, a very warm and dry July could follow,” reports qualified meteorologist Dominik Jung with a view to the latest long-term forecasts. July could therefore be significantly warmer than the new climate mean for the years 1991 to 2020. According to initial forecasts, Jung is also predicting a very warm and very dry summer in 2023. (hg)
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