Kamal Harris and Donald Trump They have in common only Pennsylvania, the swing state that both candidates’ campaigns know they must win in order to win the race for the White House. But Republicans have invested 36 percent of their campaign spending in that state, and Democrats have invested 21 percent. Harris, who is spending more than her rival nationally, has spent the last seven days there.
Swing States, the Republican and Dem Strategy
“Pennsylvania and Georgia occupy the middle space in this final act of the race. The map is blown for Republicans without Georgia, and for Democrats without Pennsylvania,” said John Ashbrook, a Republican strategist. “It all comes down to two states, Pennsylvania and Georgia. If Trump does exactly what he’s done and wins Pennsylvania and Georgia, he’ll get to 270. He doesn’t need Arizona, he doesn’t need Nevada,” McCarthy agreed.
The Democratic candidate has been working hard for months on Wisconsin and Michigan, considered “the most direct path”, along with Pennsylvania, to victory. While the former president is investing in North Carolina and Georgia.
But “our strategy is based on a large map. Trump is focused on one or two swing states. We don’t have that luxury. Every single swing state is a close one, so we need to compete aggressively in every state to build a path to 270 electoral votes,” says Harris campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon.
In the seven states in the balance (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) the Trump campaign has instead identified “persuadable targets”, that is, 11 percent of voters, and is investing in these, as well as in Republicans who might not go to vote.
Kamala Harris’s campaign, on the other hand, relies on nationally broadcast ads that don’t target specific states. 18 percent of Harris’s ad dollars are spent domestically, while Trump’s is just 8 percent. Harris’s campaign has spent $933 million on ads, while Trump’s has spent just $485 million (as of September 3).
Republicans spent 19 percent of their money between March 12 and September 3 in Georgia, a state where Democrats spent 11 percent of their budget. Democrats instead concentrated 16 percent of their spending in Michigan, where Republicans spent only 12 percent.
The two candidates’ campaigns continue to have staffers deployed in states such as Minnesota, Virginia and New Hampshire, where Harris visited on September 4. But the focus of both campaigns is on the seven swing states, as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
A Kamala win in Arizona and Nevada would offset a loss in Wisconsin or Michigan. That’s why the campaign is spending 13 percent of its ad budget on those states, compared to 9 percent for Trump’s campaign. If Harris wins Michigan and Wisconsin but loses Pennsylvania, she would need to win North Carolina or Georgia and one of the two Western states.
One of Harris’s main advocacy groups, American Bridge 21st Century, has decided to focus all its spending on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Future Forward, another large Democratic super PAC, has spread its investments across all the swing states.
On the Republican side, the two major super PACs have split the states, with an overlap in Pennsylvania. Preserve America, backed by casino magnate Miriam Adelson, focuses on Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while Maga deploys its resources in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
#HarrisTrump #Strategies #Point #Common