Chicago, United States.- The Democratic Party candidate for the White House, current Vice President Kamala Harris, will seek to capitalize on the renewed enthusiasm in her favor during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, attempting a difficult balance between attracting the Democratic base but without alienating undecided voters.
Following President Joe Biden’s historic withdrawal from the Democratic nomination in July after a disastrous debate with Republican rival Donald Trump, polls have shown an explosion of enthusiasm for voting in November after Harris consolidated support to become the candidate.
“(Democrats) had been behind Republicans in enthusiasm all year and this surge puts both parties with almost identical enthusiasm heading into the convention,” Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School poll, told Grupo REFORMA.
According to the poll released in early August, Democratic voters’ enthusiasm for voting in November rose from 34 percent in May with Biden as the candidate to 55 percent in July with Harris already as a candidate.
A 59-year-old lawyer who built her national political career as California Attorney General, the enthusiasm for Harris is also reflected in voting intentions in various polls such as that of Marquette University, which shows 52 percent in favor of the Democrat compared to 48 percent for Trump.
With a lineup that includes speeches from party stars such as former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, the Democratic National Convention seeks to prolong enthusiasm and open avenues to victory in states that until a month ago were considered solidly in favor of Trump, such as North Carolina.
“I haven’t felt this level of enthusiasm… People were concerned about the age of both President Biden and Donald Trump and now it’s not an issue that affects the vice president,” North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper told The New York Times of the renewed Democratic opportunity in that state.
From 1980 to today, the Republican Party has won every presidential election in North Carolina, a streak that was only interrupted in 2008 with the victory of Barack Obama, which has many Democrats dreaming that Harris could regroup the coalition of voters from that year.
Before more than 23,000 attendees who will gather at the United Center in Chicago, the Democratic National Convention opens tomorrow, Monday, with a speech by President Biden himself, who, at 81 years old, had seen a loss of support among some key groups, including Latinos, young people and independents.
According to the most recent poll from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst in late July, Harris’ arrival at the head of the Democratic ticket led to a 13-point increase among Latino voters, 14 points among young voters, and 17 points among independent voters, which could be decisive in winning swing states.
“People (in the US) are now much more likely to express positive feelings of hope, happiness and pride at the prospect of a Harris victory than at the prospect of a Biden victory,” Jesse Rhodes, a political scientist at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst who conducted the survey, told Grupo REFORMA.
“Certain groups within the Democratic Party coalition are particularly enthusiastic: younger voters, voters of color, meaning African Americans, Latino Americans, and Asian Americans,” Rhodes notes.
All this in a context in which voters see the economy and immigration as their main concerns, despite the fact that the economy grew above expectations by 2.8 percent in the second quarter and with the number of undocumented migration crossings registering low monthly levels in July.
Comprised of 4,698 delegates and superdelegates, the Democratic National Convention already made official in a virtual vote at the beginning of August the candidacy of Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and all that remains is for the current Vice President to be ceremonially sworn in in Chicago.
Born in 1964 just after the Second World War generation, Harris will be the first African-American woman to run for the White House as the standard-bearer of one of the main political parties in the US, as well as the first time that a woman of Asian descent has competed for the Presidency.
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With an estimated cost of $160 million and located geographically close to the key states of Wisconsin and Michigan, the arrival of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago to nominate Harris will be the first in that city since the same party nominated Bill Clinton for re-election in 1996.
At the sports arena that serves as home to the Chicago Bulls in basketball and the Chicago Blackhawks in hockey, Harris will deliver a speech on Thursday that some say will be intended as an introduction to both the Democratic base and, more importantly, to undecided voters looking for clues to her thinking.
“Many people don’t have a clear opinion of her, so the most important goal will be to have a speech that is both an introduction and an outline of the campaign themes. I think it’s important to reach out to voters who don’t like Trump, but who aren’t solid Democrats,” said Professor Franklin of Marquette University.
For observers, Harris’s message of positive themes will also be accompanied by attacks on Trump’s positions, painting him as an extremist given his ties to platforms of ultra-conservative groups such as the “2025 Project.”
“I expect Harris to strike a tone that combines forceful attacks on Trump and Republicans’ extremist agenda with positive messaging touting Democrats’ accomplishments and policy plans, as well as unifying overtones,” said Professor Panagopoulos of Northeastern University.
At the United Center, the agenda includes speeches by former President Barack Obama on Tuesday and former President Bill Clinton on Wednesday, two party figures who appeal to diverse audiences; vice presidential candidate Tim Walz will also make a prime-time appearance Wednesday night.
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The biggest challenge facing the Democratic National Convention is the protests expected to occur around the United Center in Chicago by activists against the Biden administration’s support for Israel in its war against the Hamas terrorist group, an issue that divides the party itself.
According to organizers, between 20,000 and 30,000 people are expected to arrive in Chicago to participate in demonstrations that will take place on both Monday and Friday in a circuit set up by the city of Chicago that, according to organizers, will be too small for the total number of pro-Palestine groups that will attend.
“We will be in the streets shouting and protesting loudly and demanding a free Palestine as Kamala Harris gives her acceptance speech,” said Hatem Abudayyeh, president of the EU-Palestine Community Network and who heads the Coalition to March Against the Convention in Chicago.
For analysts, the handling of protests by local police is key to avoiding images of police repression like the one that occurred during the 1968 Democratic Convention, when anti-Vietnam War groups were violently repressed, alienating moderate voters.
Inside the convention, a handful of elected delegates could also protest as part of the Uncommitted Movement that emerged in states with high Muslim populations such as Michigan, where discontent with Biden’s policy of supporting Israel is considered sufficient to not vote for the Democrats.
Following the Democratic Convention, the eyes of American politics will be on the first debate between Harris and Trump, scheduled for September 10, which would kick off the last two months of campaigning before the presidential election on Tuesday, November 5.
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