After the TV debate with Trump, a CNN snap poll sees Kamala Harris as the clear winner. But how much will the debate really influence the US election?
Washington, DC – The TV debate was a disaster for Donald Trump. People in the USA agreed on that. A quick poll by the TV station CNN produced a clear result, with 63 percent seeing Kamala Harris as the clear winner.
However, the question of whether the debate on television will have any impact on the upcoming US election in November remains unanswered. There is not yet enough data to make a clear statement on this. However, initial surveys after the TV debate seem to indicate at least a trend.
Polls show: Harris emerges as winner from TV debate – but also in the long term?
According to a survey by the Morning Consult Institute, Harris was able to slightly increase her lead over Trump. After the TV debate, she is now five points ahead among the “likely voters” nationwide. For comparison: Shortly before the debate in Philadelphia, she was ahead by three and four points in two Morning Consult surveys.
However, the institute’s experts stress that it is still too early to say clearly what influence the TV debate will have on the new figures. Harris had already gained approval beforehand. The positive trend could therefore have arisen independently of the debate. Nevertheless, the debate will probably help her to maintain this momentum before the US election.
Harris’ lead also extended in further poll on the US election
Harris can be pleased about another positive poll on the US election. In an Ipsos poll for the news agency Reuters She also slightly increased her lead over Trump after the TV debate in Philadelphia. Compared to the last poll in August, she was able to improve and is now five points ahead.
A YouGov poll for the British Times shows a similar picture: Harris is also leading by four points among the “likely voters”. The following table summarizes the results of the three polls.
Ipsos/Reuters | 47 | 42 |
Morning Consult | 50 | 45 |
YouGov/Times | 49 | 45 |
Swing states also crucial for 2024 US election: National polls only have limited impact
Although national polls before the US election provide valuable insights into the voters’ opinions, the actual outcome is decided elsewhere. There is no direct election in the USA, so the popular vote only determines the composition of the electoral college. Whoever can get at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes in this Electoral College will ultimately move into the White House.
The decision will therefore be made in the swing states, where the outcome is unpredictable. In these states, the majority fluctuates from election to election. The current polls in the seven swing states show that it will be a neck-and-neck race. Harris cannot therefore rely on the national polls – even if the data after the TV duel against Trump is positive for her. (cs)
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